Public Policy Polling

Schweitzer could put Montana in play for 2016 presidential contest

Raleigh, N.C. – Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer is popular enough in his home state to make Montana competitive if he were the Democratic nominee for president in 2016.

Schweitzer is tied at 46% in a hypothetical 2016 match-up with Marco Rubio, and he trails Paul Ryan by just 4 points, 45% to 49%. By comparison Hillary Clinton trails Ryan by 7 points (44/51) and Rubio by 8 points (42/50). Clinton is viewed favorably by 44% of general election voters and unfavorably by 48%.

Clinton is still the top pick for 58% of Montana Democrats to be the party’s 2016 presidential nominee, followed by 22% for Schweitzer, 9% for Joe Biden, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, 1% for Martin O’Malley and Deval Patrick, and 0% for Kirsten Gillibrand and Mark Warner. If Clinton opts to not run, Schweitzer would be the first choice for 35% of Democratic primary voters, trailed by Biden at 28%, Warren at 13% and everyone else in the low single digits or receiving no support. If Clinton and Biden both decide not to run, Schweitzer’s support would surge to 46%.

Montana Miscellany

-Steve Bullock's off to a pretty good start with the public in his first few months as Governor of Montana. 43% of voters approve of the job he's doing to only 18% who disapprove. Democrats (81/2) are very happy with him while only 47% of Republicans have even formed an opinion about him, suggesting that they're taking a wait and see approach.

Montanans continue to be closely divided on Jon Tester as we found throughout last year's election- 45% both approve and disapprove of him. Barack Obama continues to be unpopular in the state- only 43% of voters are happy with the job he's doing to 55% who give him poor marks.

-As we tend to find in most red states, Montana voters are opposed to gay marriage but supportive of civil union rights for same sex couples. 43% of voters think same sex marriage should be made legal to 49% who think it should continue to be illegal. But 64% of voters favor at least civil unions to only 33% who think there shouldn't be any legal rights for gay couples at all.

-It's a sign of how much Democrats want Hillary Clinton to be their candidate in 2016 that as much as Brian Schweitzer is loved in Montana, 58% still prefer Clinton to 22% for their potential home state candidate. Joe Biden at 9%, Elizabeth Warren at 5%, and Andrew Cuomo at 3% are the only other people we tested to register over 1%. Schweitzer would lead Biden 35/28 if you took Clinton out of the mix, and would get 46% to 18% for Warren and 12% for Cuomo if Biden was out of the mix too.

Montana Senate race looks competitive

Raleigh, N.C. – With potential threats in the 2014 Democratic primary and general election, Senator Max Baucus could have a difficult but not impossible road to re-election next year, according to PPP’s latest Montana poll.

If former Gov. Brian Schweitzer decides to run for the Senate seat, he leads against Baucus 54% to 35% with Democratic primary voters. That support holds with moderate and liberal primary voters, and it represents a 15-point increase since PPP’s last poll on this match-up in September. Schweitzer’s +77 favorability rating (86/9) with Montana Democrats is also 19 points higher than Baucus’ +58 job approval rating (76/18).

Baucus also trails two possible Republican challengers by 5 points—he’s down 44/49 against Steve Daines and 42/47 against Marc Racicot. Baucus holds leads against Tim Fox (46/43), Corey Stapleton (45/38) and Champ Edmunds (47/37), but these three potential GOP contenders all have name recognition below 50%.

Schweitzer stronger than Baucus

PPP's newest Montana Senate poll finds that the seat could be competitive next year...but Republicans are probably going to need a stronger candidate than Corey Stapleton or Champ Edmunds.

Max Baucus has a 45/48 approval rating, upside down numbers that reflect what we've found for him over most of the last couple years. Nevertheless Baucus would start out with pretty large leads over both Stapleton (45/38) and Edmunds (47/37) who have shown the greatest interest in the race to date.

Baucus would be in trouble if a stronger Republican candidate got into the contest though. He would trail by 5 point margins to both Congressman Steve Daines (49/44) and former Governor Marc Racicot (47/42). He would have a small lead over Attorney General Tim Fox (46/43).

The biggest threat to Baucus might actually be in a primary. Former Governor Brian Schweitzer would lead him 54/35 in a face off. Democratic voters like Baucus (76/18 approval) but he can't match up to Schweitzer's popularity with the party base (86/9 favorability). Schweitzer's up across the ideological spectrum of the party, leading by 34 with 'very liberal' voters, 17 with 'somewhat liberal' ones, and 15 with moderates.

Schweitzer would be a stronger general candidate than Baucus. He leads Stapleton by 10 at 49/39 and Edmunds by 15 at 52/37. It would still be competitive even with Schweitzer as the nominee if a top tier Republican ran though- he would lead Daines only 48/45 and start out just behind Racicot at 46/45. He leads Fox by 6 points in a hypothetical match up at 49/43.

Tester leads MT Senate race, Flake up in AZ, Romney by 7

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Arizona and Montana find Mitt Romney leading by 7 points and two key Senate races leaning in opposite directions, with Democrat Jon Tester leading Republican challenger Denny Rehberg 48-46 in Montana and Republican Jeff Flake leading Democratic foe Richard Carmona 51-46 for the open seat in Arizona.

Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 and Arizona was thought of earlier this year as a place where he might be able to expand the map. But he's not popular in either state, sporting a 42/53 approval rating in Arizona and 44/53 one in Montana.

We've released 4 Montana Senate polls since Labor Day and Tester has led by 2 points in every one of them. Voters are closely split on Tester with 47% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove, but that makes him far more popular than Rehberg who only has a 37% approval with 54% of voters unhappy with his performance. The only reason this race is even close is the GOP nature of the state. Tester's ahead 50/37 with independents.

Tester, Flake lead Senate races, Romney up 7 in both AZ and MT

PPP's final polls in Arizona and Montana find Mitt Romney leading by 7 points and two key Senate races leaning in opposite directions, with Democrat Jon Tester leading Republican challenger Denny Rehberg 48-46 in Montana and Republican Jeff Flake leading Democratic foe Richard Carmona 51-46 for the open seat in Arizona.

Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 and Arizona was thought of earlier this year as a place where he might be able to expand the map. But he's not popular in either state, sporting a 42/53 approval rating in Arizona and 44/53 one in Montana. In Arizona he's up 69/30 with Hispanics, but that's not enough to make up for a 61/39 deficit with white voters. In Montana Obama would have to win independents to make up for the Republican lean of the state, but he's losing 51/43 with them.

We've released 4 Montana Senate polls since Labor Day and Tester has led by 2 points in every one of them. Voters are closely split on Tester with 47% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove, but that makes him far more popular than Rehberg who only has a 37% approval with 54% of voters unhappy with his performance. The only reason this race is even close is the GOP nature of the state. Tester's ahead 50/37 with independents.

Just like in the Missouri Senate contest the Libertarian candidate is worth keeping an eye on here. Dan Cox is pulling 4% and the fact that his voters support Romney 56-11 suggests that he's pulling almost of them from Rehberg. Cox's support has already dropped from 7% three weeks ago, and Tester needs for it to not drop much further.

Richard Carmona led our last Arizona Senate poll, in early October, 45-43. What's happened since then is pretty straight forward- the Republican base has unified around Jeff Flake. He's gone from pulling 70% of Republicans on that survey to now 88%. And although Carmona still leads by 5 points with independents, Flake's cut that down from a 15 point lead a month ago.

Attacks on Carmona have taken a toll- his net favorability has dropped 11 points from +8 at 35/27 to -3 at 40/43. He leads 70/26 with Hispanics but that's not enough to make up for his 59/39 deficit with white voters.

Toss-ups in several Montana statewide races

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's new poll of the Montana Governor's race finds some momentum for Republican Rick Hill over the last month. He now holds the slightest of leads over Steve Bullock, 43-42. He had trailed 44-39 a month ago. Libertarian Ron Vandevender and independent Bill Coate are each polling at 4%.

Bullock remains a good deal more popular personally than Hill with 44% of voters rating him positively to 28% with a negative opinion. Hill's favorability has improved a net 3 points over the last month but that still leaves him under water at a 37/41 spread. The movement in this race over the last few weeks probably has more to do with the deterioration for Democrats in the state overall following Barack Obama's poor debate performance than anything to do with the candidates themselves.

Closeness is the name of the game in several of the other Montana statewide races as well. Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau leads Republican challenger Sandy Welch just 41-40. It's a similar story in the Secretary of State contest where Democrat Linda McCulloch is at 42% to 41% for Republican Brad Johnson and 8% for Libertarian Roger Roots.

Lots of Close Races in Montana

PPP's new poll of the Montana Governor's race finds some momentum for Republican Rick Hill over the last month. He now holds the slightest of leads over Steve Bullock, 43-42. He had trailed 44-39 a month ago. Libertarian Ron Vandevender and independent Bill Coate are each polling at 4%.

Bullock remains a good deal more popular personally than Hill with 44% of voters rating him positively to 28% with a negative opinion. Hill's favorability has improved a net 3 points over the last month but that still leaves him under water at a 37/41 spread. The movement in this race over the last few weeks probably has more to do with the deterioration for Democrats in the state overall following Barack Obama's poor debate performance than anything to do with the candidates themselves.

Closeness is the name of the game in several of the other Montana statewide races as well. Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau leads Republican challenger Sandy Welch just 41-40. It's a similar story in the Secretary of State contest where Democrat Linda McCulloch is at 42% to 41% for Republican Brad Johnson and 8% for Libertarian Roger Roots.

There are two other races where there's a pretty clear leader right now. Republican Tim Fox has a 45-35 lead over Pam Bucy in the open seat race for Attorney General. And Democratic incumbent Monica Lindeen leads Republican challenger Derek Skees 44-37 for reelection as Auditor.

Montana's 'corporations are not people' amendment continues to lead for passage. 52% of voters say they will support it to 22% who are opposed. Democrats (71/12) and independents (59/17) overwhelmingly support it, while Republicans (28/35) are slightly opposed.

Brian Schweitzer has his usual solid approval numbers this month with 54% of voters approving of him to 36% who disapprove. After seeing some improvement over the course of the year, Max Baucus' numbers have headed back in the wrong direction this month with 35% of voters approving of him to 54% who disapprove.

Full results here

Obama drops, Tester steady in Montana

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Montana poll finds a steep drop for Barack Obama in the state compared to a month ago. He now trails Mitt Romney by 11 points, 52-41. Previously he had been behind by only 5 points at 50-45.

Montanans have really warmed up to Mitt Romney in the last month. 52% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. That's up a net 9 points from last month when was at a -1 spread (47/48). At the same time Obama's already poor approval numbers have sunk even further. He was already at a 44/54 approval spread last month and that has declined further to 40% now with 56% of voters disapproving of him.

Romney gains in Montana, Tester up 2

PPP's newest Montana poll finds a steep drop for Barack Obama in the state compared to a month ago. He now trails Mitt Romney by 11 points, 52-41. Previously he had been behind by only 5 points at 50-45.

Montanans have really warmed up to Mitt Romney in the last month. 52% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. That's up a net 9 points from last month when was at a -1 spread (47/48). At the same time Obama's already poor approval numbers have sunk even further. He was already at a 44/54 approval spread last month and that has declined further to 40% now with 56% of voters disapproving of him.

When Gary Johnson is included in the poll he gets 6% with Romney leading Obama 50-40. That's consistent with our general finding that Johnson doesn't pull too disproportionately from either Obama or Romney and is thus unlikely to play a spoiler effect in the contest.

The good news for Democrats is that even as Obama's standing has deteriorated in the last month, Jon Tester's has remained unchanged. Last month we found him leading Denny Rehberg 45-43 with Libertarian Dan Cox at 8% and this month we find the exact same numbers for all three candidates. Tester leads thanks to a 45-36 lead with independents and because he's taking 88% of the Democratic vote while only 78% of Republicans stand behind Rehberg.