Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Looking at the 2012 electoral map

Mitt Romney's victory in Iowa last night may not have been very impressive, but it still increases the chances he will emerge as the Republican nominee in the end and that makes it worth taking a first look at the 2012 electoral map.

Over the course of 2011 PPP did at least 2 polls in 15 major swing states.  Here's how the Obama/Romney numbers averaged out, from the places where Obama's strongest to where he's weakest:

State	Our Poll Average	# of Polls
New Mexico	Obama +13	3
Wisconsin	Obama +8	4
Iowa	Obama +7	5
Michigan	Obama +6	2
Virginia	Obama +5	3
Colorado	Obama +5	3
Ohio	Obama +3	4
North Carolina	Obama +2	12
Florida	Obama +2	4
Pennsylvania	Obama +1	4
Nevada	Tie	4
New Hampshire	Romney +1	2
Missouri	Romney +2	3
Arizona	Romney +6	3
Montana	Romney +9	2

Note: I'm excluding 2 polls from these averages: a Virginia poll right after the killing of Osama bin Laden and an Ohio poll conducted of likely voters for the November referendum election. The referendum drew out a likely voter pool that's probably different from who will come out this November and polls taken right after the bin Laden killing are not a realistic gauge of where Obama stands right now.

If you go strictly by the averages Obama's in pretty good shape for reelection. Ceding Indiana (which we can't poll) to Romney, Obama gets 337 electoral votes to 195 for Romney with the 6 for Nevada on the table.

Here's the thing though: our polls and probably everyone's polls are actually worse for Obama than they look right now.  That's because a disproportionate number of the undecideds in Obama/Romney polling are Republicans. Romney's not their first choice for the nomination so they're being stubborn and saying they're undecided for the general, even though it's pretty much a certainty that they'll end up voting for the GOP nominee in the end. 

Schweitzer could win Sen. nom in ’14 but maybe not MT in ‘16

Raleigh, N.C. – Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat in a red state, is one of the most popular governors in the country—in fact, his 55-33 approval spread makes him the seventh best-liked of 37 on which PPP has polled this year, thanks to approval from 30% of Republicans, 55% of independents, and 83% of his own party.  Were he to challenge fellow Democrat Max Baucus for the 2014 Senate nomination, he would prevail, 51-35.  Schweitzer leads by 40 points with the most liberal voters, 17 with moderates, and even 23 with the most conservative.

But if Schweitzer runs for the White House two years later, he might have a tougher time winning his own state in the general election.  47% say they would not vote for him, and only 32% say they would.  Independents mirror the overall results, but while Schweitzer pulls 12% of GOP voters, 22% of his own party says they would not vote for him.

Montana Miscellaneous Poll

-Brian Schweitzer is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 55% of voters approving of him to 33% who disapprove. In addition to having a unified Democratic base behind him he's very strong with independents at 55/30 and has a 30% approval with Republicans, much more crossover support than any other major politician in the state has.

-Max Baucus is one of the least popular Senators in the country with only 37% of voters approving of him to 51% who disapprove. Even Democrats aren't terribly enthused about him (65/25) and support from independents (34/53) and Republicans (16/73) is limited.

-Schweitzer would lead Baucus 51-35 in a hypothetical 2014 primary contest...and given their respective approval numbers, Democrats might need Schweitzer to replace Baucus as their candidate in order to hold onto this seat that year.

Republican Hill leads Bullock by one for MT-Gov.

Raleigh, N.C. – Of two potential Montana Democratic gubernatorial candidates and four Republicans, likely Democratic nominee Steve Bullock is the best-known and by far the best-liked, and his popularity has only grown in the five months since PPP last polled the race.  But because of the state’s Republican leanings, he remains down to his most likely Republican opponent, Rick Hill.

Bullock lags Hill by only one point (39-38), but that is hardly a change from June (39-37).  This is despite the fact that Bullock’s favorability spread has grown from an already solid 28-18 to 34-17, while Hill’s has remained equally in the red as before (22-27 versus 20-25).

MT-Gov close

The race to replace Brian Schweitzer as Governor of Montana continues to look like a toss up, with Republican frontrunner Rick Hill at 39% to likely Democratic nominee Steve Bullock's 38%.

Despite the closeness of the race Bullock is actually far more popular with voters in the state than Hill is. 34% have a favorable opinion of him to only 17% with a negative one. Bullock is seen positively by Democrats and independents, and breaks even with Republicans. By comparison only 22% of voters see Hill favorably while 27% have an unfavorable opinion. The Republican lean of the state balances out Bullock's superior popularity though.

Very similar trends are emerging in the races for Senate and Governor in Montana. In each instance the likely Democratic candidate has better poll numbers personally than the likely Republican candidate.  But the Democrat trails by a small margin in both contests anyway- it takes a huge disparity in candidate quality for Democrats to win in Montana and that may or may not exist in these races.

Obama down ten in Montana to Romney, eight to Gingrich

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama rode such a wave into office that he nearly won in Montana, with John McCain edging him by only two points.  But in PPP’s latest poll of the state, it looks like Obama’s team can write Montana off its expanded list of targets for 2012.  The only of five Republicans tested who does as poorly as McCain is the plummeting Herman Cain.

But neither will Obama likely do as badly as John Kerry or Al Gore, who lost the state by respective 21- and 25-point margins.  Obama trails his strongest opponent, Mitt Romney, by 10 points (50-40), and lags Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich each by eight (48-40 and 50-42), Rick Perry by three (46-43), and Cain by two (45-43).  Romney is up two points and Cain down three since PPP last polled the race in June.  The others were not tested then, but Gingrich is up six points from the second most recent poll a year ago.

Obama doing poorly in Montana

Barack Obama came close to pulling an upset victory in Montana in 2008, but it doesn't look like he'll be able to repeat his strong performance there next year. Only 39% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 56% who disapprove, and he trails all of his GOP opponents by margins ranging from 2-10 points.

Obama's troubles in Montana are indicative of his broader issues with white voters. He's fallen a lot further with white voters than either African Americans or Hispanics so in states with pretty much all white populations like Montana, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin he's doing a lot worse relative to 2008 than in states like North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia that have more diverse electorates.

Obama's doing very poorly with independents, only 36% of whom approve of him while 57% disapprove.  And Republicans (93%) are far more united in their disapproval of him than Democrats (81%) are in their approval.

There's not a huge electability gap in Montana between the two Republican front runners. Mitt Romney leads Obama by 10 points at 50-40 and Newt Gingrich has an 8 point advantage at 50-42.  Ron Paul matches Gingrich's 8 point lead at 48-40 and this is yet another state where he's the strongest candidates with independents, leading Obama 50-35 with them.

Rehberg still leads Tester by two

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has polled the Montana Senate race three times in the last year, and it has been the exact same story each time: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg leads incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by two points (47-45).  The candidates’ standings have been unmoved by fluctuations in their approval ratings.

Tester is still better-liked than Rehberg, and both candidates are seen more poorly by voters than when PPP last polled the race in June, but when it comes down to it, this is a Republican-leaning state.  Tester’s 46-42 approval-disapproval spread is down from 51-39 in June and 50-40 last November.  Likewise, Rehberg’s 41-47 is down, though less so, from 44-45 in June.