Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s new poll of the Montana Governor’s race finds some momentum for
Republican Rick Hill over the last month. He now holds the slightest of leads
over Steve Bullock, 43-42. He had trailed 44-39 a month ago. Libertarian Ron
Vandevender and independent Bill Coate are each polling at 4%.
Bullock remains a good deal more popular personally than Hill with 44% of
voters rating him positively to 28% with a negative opinion. Hill’s
favorability has improved a net 3 points over the last month but that still
leaves him under water at a 37/41 spread. The movement in this race over the
last few weeks probably has more to do with the deterioration for Democrats in
the state overall following Barack Obama’s poor debate performance than
anything to do with the candidates themselves.
Closeness is the name of the game in several of the other Montana statewide
races as well. Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau
leads Republican challenger Sandy Welch just 41-40. It’s a similar story in the
Secretary of State contest where Democrat Linda McCulloch is at 42% to 41% for
Republican Brad Johnson and 8% for Libertarian Roger Roots.
There are two other races where there’s a pretty clear leader right now.
Republican Tim Fox has a 45-35 lead over Pam Bucy in the open seat race for
Attorney General. And Democratic incumbent Monica Lindeen leads Republican
challenger Derek Skees 44-37 for reelection as Auditor.
Montana’s ‘corporations are not people’ amendment continues to lead for
passage. 52% of voters say they will support it to 22% who are opposed.
Democrats (71/12) and independents (59/17) overwhelmingly support it, while
Republicans (28/35) are slightly opposed.
Brian Schweitzer has his usual solid approval numbers this month with 54% of
voters approving of him to 36% who disapprove.
PPP surveyed 737 likely
Montana voters from October 8th to 10th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.6% This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Bullock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Steve Bullock, Republican Rick Hill, Libertarian
Ron Vandevender, and independent Bill Coate.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 42%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 43%
Ron Vandevender ……………………………………. 4%
Bill Coate ……………………………………………….. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Pam Bucy and Republican Tim Fox.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Pam Bucy ………………………………………………. 35%
Tim Fox………………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Monica Lindeen and Republican Derek Skees.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Monica Lindeen ………………………………………. 44%
Derek Skees …………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 The candidates for Superintendent of Public
Instruction are Democrat Denise Juneau and
Republican Sandy Welch. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Denise Juneau………………………………………… 41%
Sandy Welch…………………………………………… 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Linda McCulloch, Republican Brad
Johnson, and Libertarian Roger Roots. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Linda McCulloch ……………………………………… 42%
Brad Johnson………………………………………….. 41%
Roger Roots……………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 In 2004, Montana voters approved I-148,
creating a medical marijuana program for
patients with debilitating medical conditions.
Senate Bill 423, passed by the 2011
Legislature, repeals I-148 and enacts a new
medical marijuana program, which includes:
permitting patients to grow marijuana or
designate a provider; limiting each marijuana
provider to three patients; prohibiting marijuana
providers from accepting anything of value in
exchange for services or products; granting
local governments authority to regulate
marijuana providers; establishing specific
standards for demonstrating chronic pain; and
reviewing the practices of doctors who certify
marijuana use for 25 or more patients in a 12-
month period. If SB 423 is affirmed by the
voters, there will be no fiscal impact because
the legislature has funded the costs of its
implementation. If SB 423 is rejected by the
voters, there may be a small savings to the
State. If the election was today, would you vote
for or against SB 423?
For ………………………………………………………… 44%
Against…………………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q9 Ballot initiative I-166 establishes a state policy
that corporations are not entitled to
constitutional rights because they are not
human beings, and charges Montana elected
and appointed officials, state and federal, to
implement that policy. With this policy, the
people of Montana establish that there should
be a level playing field in campaign spending,
in part by prohibiting corporate campaign
contributions and expenditures and by limiting
political spending in elections. Further,
Montana’s congressional delegation is charged
with proposing a joint resolution offering an
amendment to the United States Constitution
establishing that corporations are not human
beings entitled to constitutional rights. If the
election was today, would you vote for or
against initiative 166?
For ………………………………………………………… 52%
Against…………………………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Schweitzer’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .54%
Disapprove…………. .36%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve …………….. .35%
Disapprove…………. .54%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
