Raleigh, N.C. – Democrats have a
slight edge in keeping control of the Montana governor’s mansion when the
term-limited Brian Schweitzer leaves office.
Current Attorney General Steve Bullock leads former at-large Congressman
Rick Hill by five points (44-39), with Libertarian Ron Vandevender and
independent Bill Coate each at 4% and 9% undecided. In PPP’s April pre-primary matchup between
the two major party candidates, they tied at 39%, with 21% still undecided.
Since Hill remains at 39%, clearly Bullock’s boost is not due to the minor
party candidates siphoning support from Hill, even though they do take slightly
more of the GOP vote than the Democratic vote.
Bullock’s increase in support is because he now leads by seven with
independents, versus a tie in April.
Two measures on this fall’s ballot lead by wide margins right now. An initiative establishing that corporations
are not people leads by 29 points (53-24), and one which would reform the
existing medical marijuana program leads by 17 (46-29). Both enjoy considerable support across the
partisan spectrum.
In a prospective 2014 Senate election, Schweitzer would outperform Max
Baucus versus a generic Republican opponent, but if Baucus did run again and
Schweitzer challenged him in a primary, Schweitzer would not beat the incumbent
by much. Schweitzer would top an unnamed
Republican by eight points (50-42), just a bit more than Baucus’ six-point edge
(48-42). In a primary, 40% prefer
Schweitzer to 36% in favor of renominating Baucus. That is down from a 48-37 Schweitzer
advantage in April.
Overall, Schweitzer remains one of the most popular governors in the
country, with 56% approving and only 35% disapproving of the progressive
Democrat who governs a red-leaning state.
That is up from 52-36 in April.
56% of independents and even 26% of Republicans like the work Schweitzer
is doing, up a tick from 53% and 24%.
Baucus is not quite so beloved, but his 45-47 approval spread is up from
42-46 in the previous poll.
PPP surveyed 656 likely Montana voters,
including 201 usual Democratic primary voters, from September 10th
to 11th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.8%, and
+/-6.9% for the Democratic primary portion.
This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Bullock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Steve Bullock, Republican Rick Hill, Libertarian
Ron Vandevender, and independent Bill Coate.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 44%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 39%
Ron Vandevender ……………………………………. 4%
Bill Coate ……………………………………………….. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 In 2004, Montana voters approved I-148,
creating a medical marijuana program for
patients with debilitating medical conditions.
Senate Bill 423, passed by the 2011
Legislature, repeals I-148 and enacts a new
medical marijuana program, which includes:
permitting patients to grow marijuana or
designate a provider; limiting each marijuana
provider to three patients; prohibiting marijuana
providers from accepting anything of value in
exchange for services or products; granting
local governments authority to regulate
marijuana providers; establishing specific
standards for demonstrating chronic pain; and
reviewing the practices of doctors who certify
marijuana use for 25 or more patients in a 12-
month period. If SB 423 is affirmed by the
voters, there will be no fiscal impact because
the legislature has funded the costs of its
implementation. If SB 423 is rejected by the
voters, there may be a small savings to the
State. If the election was today, would you vote
for or against SB 423?
For ………………………………………………………… 46%
Against…………………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 Ballot initiative I-166 establishes a state policy
that corporations are not entitled to
constitutional rights because they are not
human beings, and charges Montana elected
and appointed officials, state and federal, to
implement that policy. With this policy, the
people of Montana establish that there should
be a level playing field in campaign spending,
in part by prohibiting corporate campaign
contributions and expenditures and by limiting
political spending in elections. Further,
Montana’s congressional delegation is charged
with proposing a joint resolution offering an
amendment to the United States Constitution
establishing that corporations are not human
beings entitled to constitutional rights. If the
election was today, would you vote for or
against initiative 166?
For ………………………………………………………… 53%
Against…………………………………………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Schweitzer’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .56%
Disapprove…………. .35%
Not sure …………….. . 9%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve …………….. .45%
Disapprove…………. .47%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
Max Baucus or his Republican opponent?
Max Baucus ……….. .48%
Republican
opponent……………..42%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q9 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the Senate today, and the Democratic
candidate was Brian Schweitzer, would you
vote for him or his Republican opponent?
Brian Schweitzer …. .50%
Republican
opponent……………..42%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q10 If the Democratic candidates for Senate in
2014 were Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer,
who would you vote for? (201 Democratic
primary voters)
Max Baucus ……….. .36%
Brian Schweitzer …. .40%
Not sure …………….. .24%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 88%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 34%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
