Raleigh,
N.C. – Former Gov.
Brian Schweitzer is popular enough in his home state to make Montana
competitive if he were the Democratic nominee for president in 2016.
Schweitzer
is tied at 46% in a hypothetical 2016 match-up with Marco Rubio, and he trails
Paul Ryan by just 4 points, 45% to 49%. By comparison Hillary Clinton trails
Ryan by 7 points (44/51) and Rubio by 8 points (42/50). Clinton is viewed
favorably by 44% of general election voters and unfavorably by 48%.
Clinton
is still the top pick for 58% of Montana Democrats to be the party’s 2016
presidential nominee, followed by 22% for Schweitzer, 9% for Joe Biden, 5% for
Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, 1% for Martin O’Malley and Deval Patrick,
and 0% for Kirsten Gillibrand and Mark Warner. If Clinton opts to not run,
Schweitzer would be the first choice for 35% of Democratic primary voters,
trailed by Biden at 28%, Warren at 13% and everyone else in the low single
digits or receiving no support. If Clinton and Biden both decide not to run,
Schweitzer’s support would surge to 46%.
“There
aren’t many Democrats right now polling better against Republicans than Hillary
Clinton, especially in red states, but Schweitzer is immensely popular in his
home state of Montana,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
President
Obama’s job approval rating—55% disapproving and 43% approving—closely mirrors
the 2012 presidential results in Montana. Newly elected Gov. Steve Bullock is
popular with Montana voters but still has not made much of an impression. 43%
of voters approve of Bullock’s job performance to just 18% who disapprove, but
39% do not yet have an opinion. Senator Jon Tester’s job approval is evenly
divided at 45%, not far off from his narrow re-election win in 2012.
Montana
voters narrowly oppose same-sex marriage 49% to 43%, but 64% support some form
of legal recognition—38% support gay marriage and 26% support civil unions.
PPP surveyed 1,011 Minnesota voters and 371 usual Democratic
primary voters from February 15th to 17th. The margin of
error for the overall sample is +/-3.1% and +/-5.1% for the Democratic portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Bullock’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 39%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
It should be allowed …………………………………. 43%
It should not ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..38%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………26%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Brian Schweitzer and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 46%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Brian Schweitzer and Republican
Paul Ryan, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 45%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 27%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 38%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 40%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Democratic Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 9%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 58%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 22%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 5%
Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Andrew
Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley,
Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner,
and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like
to see as the Democratic candidate for
President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 28%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 35%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 5%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 13%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 13%
Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 12%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 2%
Deval Patrick…………………………………………… 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 46%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 3%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 18%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 18%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 24%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 31%
Moderate………………………………………………… 36%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 8%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 60%
Man……………………………………………………….. 40%
Q6 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 36%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
