Raleigh, N.C. – Montanans do not want Brian Schweitzer to run for president in 2016, but if he did, they would vote for him. 55% think he should not run, and only 26% think he should. But if he were the Democratic nominee, he would beat his generic Republican opponent by a 42-38 margin in a state Democrats have not won at the presidential level since 1992, and that was with the aid of Ross Perot’s 26%. Democrats and independents are against a Schweitzer candidacy by similar 34-45 and 30-46 spreads, but presented with his name on the ballot, they would vote for him by 81-7 and 36-28 margins. He would also pull 11% of Republicans, 24% of whom approve of his job performance, helping him to an overall 52-36 approval mark. That ties him for the 12th most popular out of 42 governors on which PPP has polled.
If he wanted to shoot for a different federal office, Schweitzer would also prevail in a Senate primary against Max Baucus if the vote were held two years early. At this point, 48% of Democratic primary voters prefer Schweitzer and 37% the incumbent. Schweitzer prevails by 32 points among the most liberal voters and 15 among those who say they are somewhat liberal, but only by two points among moderates.
Montana still does not favor legal same-sex marriage, but the tide is turning toward it, and the state’s voters are already overwhelmingly supportive of giving gay couples the same legal rights as married straight couples. 48% want gay marriage to remain illegal, and 41% want it to be legal. That is half the margin as when PPP last asked the question here last November. Then, 51% opposed and 37% supported. 64% now support at least civil unions for same-sex couples (37% for full marriage equality and 27% for civil unions), while only 32% oppose any legal recognition of these relationships. Support comes from 82% of Democrats, 66% of independents, and even 44% of Republicans.
PPP surveyed 934 Montana voters, including 332 usual Democratic primary voters, from April 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.2%, and +/-5.4% for the primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .46%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Brian Schweitzer’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 If the Democratic candidates for Senate in
2014 were Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer,
who would you vote for? (Asked of 332
Democratic primary voters)
Max Baucus ……………………………………………. 37%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 If Brian Schweitzer were the Democratic
nominee for President in 2016, would you vote
for him or his Republican opponent?
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 42%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you think Brian Schweitzer should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should run …………………………………………. 26%
He should not………………………………………….. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 41%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..37%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………27%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 13%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
