Raleigh, N.C. – A new survey of Montana voters shows the state’s race for Governor still in its early stages, with large portions of voters undecided about the candidates and potential matchups. Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Rick Hill are tied with 39% apiece and 21% of voters undecided. Bullock leads Republican Ken Miller 41% to 35% with 24% undecided. The numbers are largely unchanged from the last time PPP polled the race in November 2011 – at that point Hill led Bullock 39-38 and Bullock had a slightly larger lead over Miller at 40-31.
Independent voters hold the key to breaking the deadlock. Bullock leads Hill among Democrats 81-6 and leads Miller among Democrats 82-4. Meanwhile Hill leads Bullock among Republicans 77-8 and Miller leads Bullock among Republicans 69-10. But independent voters are split 33-33 in a Bullock-Hill contest and in a Bullock-Miller contest 35% go for Bullock and 29% for Miller with 36% undecided.
All 3 candidates still have work to do introducing themselves to voters. Steve Bullock has a net favorable rating with Montanans, with 34% viewing him favorably and 21% unfavorably but 45% not sure (little change from last November when he was at 34-17-49). Rick Hill is viewed favorably by 20% of voters, unfavorably by 28% and 52% aren’t sure. And Ken Miller is at 11% favorable, 21% unfavorable and 67% not sure.
Rick Hill gets the most support in the Republican primary for Governor, with 33% of voters choosing him and 12% supporting Ken Miller. 5 other candidates are in single digits while 35% are still undecided.
“The Montana Governor’s race continues to look like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It looks more and more likely that it will be a Steve Bullock vs. Rick Hill match up since none of the other GOP candidates seem to be getting much traction.”
PPP surveyed 934 Montana voters, including 403 Republican primary voters, from April 26th to 29th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.2%, and +/-4.88% for the primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Bullock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Miller?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Rick
Hill, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 39%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Steve Bullock and Republican Ken
Miller, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 41%
Ken Miller……………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Bob Fanning, Rick Hill, Neil Livingstone, Jim
Lynch, Ken Miller, Jim O’Hara, and Corey
Stapleton. If the election was today, who would
you vote for? (Asked of 403 Republican
primary voters)
Bob Fanning …………………………………………… 1%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 33%
Neil Livingstone ………………………………………. 5%
Jim Lynch……………………………………………….. 4%
Ken Miller……………………………………………….. 12%
Jim O’Hara……………………………………………… 4%
Corey Stapleton ………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 35%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 13%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 37%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
