Our plan is to poll Mississippi this weekend, assuming the drama drags on. If things somehow get resolved before the end of the week, we'll poll Colorado instead- and if we don't do Colorado this weekend we'll do it next weekend. So fire away on Colorado and Mississippi poll question suggestions! Obviously we'll look at the Senate race in both states, and the Governor's race in Colorado- any other good ideas would be appreciated as well.
PPP's newest Louisiana poll continues to find that Bobby Jindal is among the least popular Governors in the country, and that there is minimal support for him running for President even in his home state. Only 32% of voters approve of the job Jindal is doing to 56% who disapprove. Among Republicans his numbers are relatively tepid (57/33 approval). His numbers with independents pretty closely mirror his overall ones (32/57), and support from Democrats is virtually nonexistent (12/75).
Even among GOP voters there is little support for a Jindal bid. Just 21% think he should seek the White House to 63% who believe he should sit it out. He finishes just fourth among Republican primary voters at 12%, behind Ted Cruz at 19%, and Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee at 17%. He leads Rand Paul's 10%, Chris Christie's 6%, Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan's 4%, and Scott Walker's 3%.
Jindal also ties for the worst of any of the Republicans when matched with Hillary Clinton, trailing her 48/44. Chris Christie also trails Clinton by 4 at 46/42, with Clinton leading Cruz 46/45, tied with Paul at 46, and trailing Bush and Huckabee each by a point at 46/45.
Perhaps the worst finding for Jindal in this poll might be that when posed with a hypothetical match up for Governor between Jindal and Edwin Edwards, voters pick Edwards by a 48/43 spread. Edwards isn't popular, sporting a 39/44 favorability rating, but that puts him in much better standing with voters than Jindal.
PPP's new Michigan poll continues to find that Hillary Clinton would be a heavy favorite in the state in 2016. She leads all of her potential opponents there by double digits- it's 47/37 over Rand Paul and Jeb Bush, 48/36 over Mike Huckabee, 48/35 over Chris Christie, and 50/34 over Ted Cruz. Those margins are all less than what Barack Obama won the state by in 2008, but more than what he won by in 2012.
Other notes from Michigan:
-A plurality of voters in the state (40%) have no opinion one way or the other about Common Core. Among those who do have one only 24% support it, compared to 35% who are opposed. Those numbers reflect Republicans being more fired up about the issue than Democrats- GOP voters oppose it 17/50, while Democrats support it by a much more narrow 35/20 spread.
-On a couple of other key issues though voters side with Democrats by a 22 point margin. There is 56/34 support for increasing the minimum wage to $10 an hour, and 53/31 support for cutting carbon pollution by up to 30% from existing power plants. Both of those things have support from a majority of independents, 25% of Republicans, and most Democrats.
-Before the season we found that 88% of Tigers fans thought the team would make the playoffs this year, and that 42% thought they would win the World Series. Halfway through the year the optimism about making the playoffs remains- 83% of fans think they'll be there. But there's less faith that the team will win it all- now just 29% think they'll take the World Series. A lot of fans are taking a wait and see approach with Brad Ausmus- 44% say they have no opinion about the job he's done so far. But folks who do have one are pretty happy with him- 47% approve to only 9% who disapprove.
PPP's newest Louisiana poll finds a race largely unchanged from February: Mary Landrieu and Bill Cassidy are likely to advance to a December runoff, and that match up is a toss up. Landrieu leads with 44% for the November election to 27% for Cassidy, 8% for Rob Maness, and 5% for Paul Hollis. Neither of the Republican alternatives to the establishment candidate are gaining any steam.
Even with 17% of voters undecided it will be a pretty difficult road to 50% for Landrieu in the November election- she has only an 8% approval rating with those remaining undecideds, and they voted for Mitt Romney by a 70/14 margin in 2012. Most of those folks seem likely to end up deciding who to vote for in November between the trio of GOP hopefuls.
The likely Landrieu/Cassidy match up for the December runoff is tied at 47. Among those who support Maness or Hollis or are undecided for the November election, 68% move to Cassidy for December compared to only 11% who move toward Landrieu. Even though only 6% of voters are undecided in that match up, they don't set up great for Landrieu- 61% voted for Romney to 20% who voted for Obama, and she has a 14/65 approval rating.
Louisiana makes another state where voters aren't particularly thrilled with either of their major choices for the Senate. Landrieu has a 42/52 approval rating, but Cassidy isn't popular either with 28% of voters rating him favorably to 36% who hold a negative opinion. Cassidy's name recognition has increased 14 points from February, but his negatives have gone up by 10 points while his positives have gone up only 4 points. Overall the story here remains constant- it's looking like a very close race that will be going on for a long time.
David Vitter continues to look like the early favorite in next year's race for Governor. He has solid approval ratings for his work in the Senate, with 48% giving him good marks to 35% who disapprove. In a match up with potential Democratic opponent John Bel Edwards, he leads big at 52/30. He would face tougher contests if he ended up in a runoff with fellow Republican Jay Dardenne, who he leads 40/34, or prospective Democratic candidate Mitch Landrieu, who he leads just 48/44.
PPP's newest Michigan poll finds that Rick Snyder's approval numbers have declined further over the last three months, and that he is now all tied up with Democratic challenger Mark Schauer at 40%. Snyder had led 43/39 in April and 44/40 in December, on our previous two polls.
Snyder's sported consistently poor approval numbers in our polling, but they've now hit an unusually low point. Only 37% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 54% who disapprove. That's down from 40/48 in April and 42/49 in December. Snyder's disapproval with Democrats (78%) is higher than his approval with Republicans (66%), and he's at 38/53 with independents. Those numbers are all a far cry from 2010 when Snyder earned substantial crossover support from Democrats and won independent voters overwhelmingly.
Schauer continues to be relatively unknown to voters in the state. 49% have no opinion about him with those who do have one pretty closely split- 27% see him favorably and 24% see him unfavorably. That may be helping lead to the relatively large pool of undecideds. The undecided voters don't like Snyder- giving him a 16/68 approval rating. But they don't like President Obama either, rating him at 30/59. That makes for a complicated choice that's unlikely to send voters to one of the candidates or the other en masse. This is shaping up as potentially a very close race.
The picture in the Senate race is steady. Gary Peters led Terri Lynn Land 41/36 in April, and the numbers are exactly the same three months later. Land has seen her favorability numbers drop precipitously as the campaign has unfolded. In December she had a +11 net favorability rating at 34/23. By April that had declined to -3 at 28/31, and now it's declined further to -10 at 32/42. She's received a lot of negative media coverage and that's carrying over to voter perceptions of her as well. Voters are closely split on Peters at 26/28, little different from 26/27 on our April poll.
Our Kentucky Senate poll from the weekend should be out tomorrow. Meanwhile we're going to poll Louisiana and Michigan this coming weekend. Obviously we'll look at the races for Governor (next year in Louisiana's case) and the Senate- what else should we get into on our Louisiana and Michigan polls? Thanks as always for the good suggestions!
A new Public Policy Polling survey of the Nebraska Governor’s race finds that it’s very competitive. Republican nominee Pete Ricketts has emerged from a divisive primary with a negative favorability rating and leads the race by only 4 points, putting Democratic foe Chuck Hassebrook within range to pull an upset.
Key findings from the survey include:
-Ricketts is polling at only 42% to 38% for Hassebrook and 8% for Libertarian Mark Elworth. Hassebrook is leading the race among independents with 34% to 26% for Ricketts and he’s also benefiting from a more unified party, getting 69% of Democrats while just 64% of Republicans are committed to Ricketts.
-Hassebrook has a net favorability rating 16 points better than that of Ricketts. 32% of Nebraskans see Hassebrook favorably to just 21% with an unfavorable opinion, for a net rating of +11. Meanwhile Ricketts is under water with just 36% giving him a positive rating to 41% who see him negatively for a net rating of -5.
-Hassebrook has room to grow as he becomes better known to voters. Right now he has 53% name recognition, compared to 77% for Ricketts who was advertising all over the state as part of his primary campaign. Among voters who are familiar with Hassebrook, whether their opinion is positive or negative, he leads Ricketts 52/37. When voters know Hassebrook they like him. By contrast Ricketts actually does slightly worse among voters familiar with him than he does overall, leading Hassebrook 44/41.
The Nebraska Governor’s race looks like it could provide Democrats with an unexpected opportunity. Pete Ricketts is a below average candidate on the Republican side, while Chuck Hassebrook is an above average candidate on the Democratic side. It’s one to keep an eye on.
PPP surveyed 902 registered voters on June 11th and 12th on behalf of Chuck Hassebrook for Governor. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.3%.
For a 12th consecutive month, PPP's North Carolina poll finds Pat McCrory with an under water approval rating. 39% of voters approve of him to 45% who disapprove. One of the key problems for McCrory may be that voters view him as weak compared to the unpopular legislature. 43% of North Carolinians think that the legislature is calling the shots in Raleigh to only 27% who believe McCrory is. When there's a perception that you're ceding power to a General Assembly with an 18% approval rating, it's generally not going to be good for your standing.
An early look ahead to the 2016 Governor's race continues to find a toss up, with McCrory leading Attorney General Roy Cooper 44/42. Cooper has low name recognition- 47%- but is popular among those familiar with him as 30% rate him favorably to 17% with an unfavorable opinion.
The Governor's race doesn't look like the only close one North Carolina may be headed for in 2016. Hillary Clinton leads the Republican Presidential field in the state but by very tight margins- 45/44 over Jeb Bush, 46/43 over Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul, and 45/41 over Chris Christie. North Carolina's been in the national spotlight more often than not over the last few election cycles, and it looks like there's a good chance that will continue on into 2016.
PPP's newest Minnesota poll finds that if Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016 the state is likely to remain safely blue. She leads all of the top potential Republican candidates by double digits there- it's 47/37 over Chris Christie, 49/39 over Jeb Bush, 50/40 over Mike Huckabee, 49/38 over Rand Paul, and 51/35 over Ted Cruz.
We also tested the pair of Minnesotans who ran for President in 2012. Tim Pawlenty has seen some improvement in his image over the last year. He has a narrowly positive favorability rating at 43/41, compared to a 39/50 spread when we polled last May. He comes the closest of any Republican to Clinton, trailing just 48/42. Michele Bachmann, on the other hand, is as unpopular as ever. She has a 31/56 favorability rating, and trails Clinton by the most of any of the Republicans we tested at 52/35.
Other notes from Minnesota:
-About a year after gay marriage became legal in the state, support for it has hit an all time high in our polling with 52% of voters in favor of it to only 40% who are opposed. In the immediate aftermath of its becoming legal we last year we found 49/45 support. The reason for the increased support may simply be that Minnesotans have found that gay marriage being legal isn't a big deal- 80% say it's either had a positive impact on their life or none at all, with just 20% claiming that it's been a negative thing.
PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations. Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"