Public Policy Polling

Highly Accurate Polling Across the Country

Missouri miscellaneous

Missouri voters expect another close presidential race in 2012.  After John McCain took the Show-Me State by less than 4,000 votes in what was the closest result in 2008, 42% of Missourians say their state will once again host a tight contest, and only 28% think it will not. Voters’ opinions are consistent with results from a PPP poll released Wednesday, which showed Obama leading Romney by one point in the state.

More Republicans (45%) think Missouri will be a swing state than Democrats (42%), despite the fact that Missouri has gone Republican in the last three presidential elections. 40% of independents think Missouri will be a swing state.

Missouri voters are warming up slightly to the idea of marriage rights for gay couples.  64% of voters believe gay couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions, up from 60% when we last asked about the topic in January.

President Obama’s nod of approval continues to influence black voters’ own opinions.  African-American voters lead the spike in support for gay marriage after a complete turnaround from just four months ago. 50% of Missouri African Americans think gay marriage should be legal, twice their level of support in January. 81% of Missouri African Americans believe gay couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions, a 31-point upswing from the previous survey.

Michigan Miscellany

-Michigan voters have moved significantly on the issue of gay marriage since PPP polled on it last summer. They still think it should be illegal by a 4 point margin, 45/41, but that's a 16 point shift from last July when they thought it should be outlawed by a 53/33 spread.

The big shift has come among Democrats, perhaps in response to President Obama's recent announcement. They now support it 63/21, up from only 48/36 favor for it a year ago. Independents are now almost evenly divided it on, 44/43, after previously opposing it 50/36.

When you expand the discussion to civil unions 70% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 27% completely opposed to any. Even 51% of Republicans at least support civil unions.

-Democrats in Michigan have a very good chance at reclaiming control of the state House this fall. They have a 50-35 lead on the generic legislative ballot. That includes a 10 point advantage with independents, and the party is also extremely unified with 92% of Democrats committed to supporting their party's candidates this fall. This round of GOP control may prove to be short lived.

-PPP took a look at how Michigan voters feel about four of the state's cultural icons: Kid Rock, Ted Nugent, Eminem, and Michael Moore.

MO-Gov tightens, but Nixon still up double digits

Jay Nixon continues to have a double digit lead against his two main Republican opponents for reelection as Governor of Missouri...but the race has tightened up some since late January. Nixon leads Dave Spence by 11 points, 45-34, and has a 14 point advantage over Bill Randles at 46-32.  Those leads are down from 20 points over Spence and 18 over Randles the last time PPP polled the race.

The main reason the race has gotten closer is Republicans starting to unify some around their candidates as the election nears. Spence has improved from 54% to 69% of the GOP vote, and Randles has gone from 58% to 63%. Also, although Nixon continues to have a double digit advantage over both of his rivals with independents, it's not as large as it used to be. He's up 14 on Spence with them compared to 26 on the previous poll, and 17 on Randles compared to 22 last time.

Spence is now looking like a pretty strong favorite for the Republican nomination, although a plurality of voters remain undecided. He's at 32% to 11% for Randles, 4% for Fred Sauer, and 1% for John Weiler. Compared to our last poll of the race Spence has gained 20 points while Randles has dropped by 4. 43% of voters remain undecided but the direction the contest is headed in is pretty clear.

Florida and Minnesota Question Suggestions

Florida and Minnesota won our vote on where to poll this weekend. Obviously we'll look at the Presidential and Senate races in both states, and the gay marriage vote in Minnesota. What else would you like to see us ask about on these polls?

Missouri a toss up for President

Voters in Missouri are not real happy with their choices for President. They don't like Barack Obama. But they don't, as evidenced by the Republican primary results in the state, like Mitt Romney either. That has the state looking closely contested again for this fall just as it was in 2008.

Obama has a statistically insignificant 45-44 advantage on Romney in Missouri, a result basically identical to our late January poll of the state that found the two candidates knotted at 45%. Obama has just a 44% approval rating in the state, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. But Romney's even less popular with only 38% of voters rating him favorably to 50% with a negative opinion. Independent voters strongly dislike both candidates with Obama's approval among them falling at 41/53 and Romney's favorability at 36/46.

Missouri's not likely to be one of the more consequential states in the Presidential election this year. If Obama somehow takes it it will just be the cherry on top of an electoral college landslide, while a Romney win won't get him anywhere close to 270 electoral votes. But the tightness does speak to the landscape in the state being much different than 2010 when Democrats were crushed at the polls and to Romney's weakness with Republicans there bleeding through to the general election.

Stabenow leads by double digits

Debbie Stabenow is looking like a safer and safer bet for reelection. PPP's newest poll finds her ahead of Pete Hoekstra by a 53-37 margin and with an even wider 53-31 advantage on Clark Durant.

The numbers are very similar to the 51-37 lead Stabenow had on Hoekstra in mid-February, but they're quite an improvement from last summer when Stabenow led only 50-41. The fallout from Hoekstra's controversial Super Bowl ad really seemed to take a lot of the wind out of his sails.

Stabenow's benefiting from a Democratic Party that's almost completely united behind her (89-5) as well as a 49-33 advantage with independents. One thing that really pops out in the crosstabs is that she's ahead by a more than 2:1 margin, 60-29, with women.

Stabenow's own approval ratings aren't that impressive, with 45% of voters approving of her to 41% who disapprove. But neither of her opponents have very strong numbers with Hoekstra's favorability rating coming down at 29/30 and Durant's at 9/18.

Hoekstra remains an overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination. He's at 42% to 11% for Durant, 4% each for Gary Glenn and Randy Hekman, and 0% for Peter Konetchy. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from February when Hoekstra led by a 42-9 spread.

Dewhurst should win...but why Cruz could

David Dewhurst should win the Texas Senate runoff in July. He beat Ted Cruz 45-34 last night, and our last poll before the election found that supporters of third place finisher Tom Leppert would support him over Cruz by a 77-13 margin in a hypothetical head to head that has now become a reality. Overall Dewhurst led Cruz 59-34 in a potential runoff.

I think it's going to end up being a lot closer than that though, and think Cruz even has a modest chance to win. It's all about turnout and enthusiasm. We found last week that 49% of Cruz's supporters were 'very excited' about voting for him. Only 27% of Dewhurst's expressed the same sentiment. Among that most enthusiastic group of voters Cruz led Dewhurst 42-37 for yesterday's primary, and trailed only 48-46 in a hypothetical runoff contest. It's hard to say what turnout will be in July but assuming it's lower than it was yesterday that will work to Cruz's advantage due to the passion of his supporters.

Toss Up in Missouri

The Missouri Senate race looks like a sheer toss up, in both the primary and general elections.

The Republican primary has always looked like a two way toss up between Todd Akin and Sarah Steelman, but now John Brunner deserves equal billing in that mix as well. All three candidates are within 5 points of each other with Steelman at 28%, Brunner at 25%, and Akin at 23%. Compared to PPP's last poll in late January Brunner is up 7 points, Steelman is down 4, and Akin has remained right in place.

When the field for this race was first developing it looked like Steelman might play the role of a Tea Party candidate, but instead Brunner has turned out to be the top choice of 'very conservative' voters with 33% to 26% for Akin and just 20% for Steelman. Steelman's strength is coming more from voters in the GOP center, as she leads Brunner by 21 points with moderates and by 8 with those identifying as only 'somewhat conservative.'

The arc of this race is pretty unmistakable- Brunner's the only candidate who's really gained much support over the last year with Akin and Steelman remaining largely stagnant.

There's no more clarity for the general election than there is for the primary. Claire McCaskill is basically tied with all three of her competitors, leading Brunner 46-44, dead even with Steelman at 44, and down 45-44 to Akin. Little has changed since our last poll when all three match ups came down at 43-43.

Obama safe in Michigan

Barack Obama won't have to worry too much about holding Michigan for the Democrats this fall- he leads Mitt Romney 53-39 there, a lead little changed from PPP's last poll of the state in February when his advantage was 54-38.

Romney just doesn't have much of a home field advantage in the state. Only 24% of voters consider him to be a Michigander to 65% who do not. And only 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative view.

It's not just Romney's unpopularity helping Obama in Michigan though. Obama's own approval rating is at a record high in our polling of the state with 53% of voters giving him good marks to 41% who disapprove, including a 50/43 standing with independents.

Obama's crushing Romney on what will doubtless be one of the biggest issues in the campaign in Michigan- 55% think that he's been better for the automotive industry in the state to only 31% who say Romney wins out on that front.

Going inside the numbers Obama's winning over 13% of Republican voters while losing just 7% of Democrats, and he also has a double digit advantage with independents at 48-36. Obama's winning women by a 58-34 margin and significantly has a 10 point lead with white voters at 50-40.

Arizona miscellaneous poll

President Obama won’t be seeing any backlash in Arizona for his recent declaration of support for gay marriage.  77% of Arizona voters believe gay couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions. And support isn’t just limited to liberal voters—in addition to 94% support from Democrats, 63% of Republicans and 83% of independents back gay marriages or civil unions.

79% of Hispanics support either gay marriages or civil unions, putting to rest theories suggesting Obama would lose support from the mostly Catholic demographic for his new stance on gay marriage. In addition, 85% of the other racial minorities which make up about 11% of the electorate support either marriage rights or civil unions for gay couples.

This is a fairly big shift from when we last polled on the issue just last November.  Then, 72% (40% for marriage equality and 32% for civil unions) supported legal rights for same-sex couples.  Support is up 11 points with Democrats, 11 with Hispanics, five with independents, four with Republicans, and a whopping 21 with non-Hispanic minorities, perhaps backing up results we have found in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Maryland showing a big boost in support from black voters after President Obama's announcement throwing his support behind same-sex marriage.