Raleigh, N.C. – As tough as things look for Democrats in the Montana Senate race right now, they wouldn’t necessarily be much better if Max Baucus was running for reelection. Only 38% of voters in the state approve of the job he’s doing to 53% who disapprove. That makes him the second most unpopular Senator in the country in our polling, and the most unpopular Democratic Senator by a good margin. He’d be trailing if he was running again too. Jon Tester’s approval has dropped from positive territory at 48/43 to now 44/50.

Despite things generally getting worse for Democrats in Montana over the last five months the one person who’s holding up well is Governor Steve Bullock. 47% of voters approve of him to 28% who disapprove, numbers that are actually a tick up from their 46/29 standing in June. He has a +15 net approval with independents and an unusually low 39% of Republicans disapprove of him.

Ted Cruz is the top choice of Montana Republicans to be their candidate for President in 2016. 20% pick him to 14% for Rand Paul and Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Paul Ryan, 8% for Marco Rubio, 4% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Bobby Jindal, and 2% for Scott Walker. Cruz is dominating among voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ getting 28% to 16% for Rand Paul and only 6% for Chris Christie.

Even with home state candidate Brian Schweitzer in the mix, Hillary Clinton is still the overwhelming pick of Montana Democrats. She gets 47% to 26% for Schweitzer, 8% for Elizabeth Warren, 6% for Joe Biden, and 3% for Andrew Cuomo with everyone else at 1% or less.

Democrats came close to winning Montana in 2008 but their prospects for 2016 look limited at this point. Hillary Clinton trails Chris Christie by 17 at 51/34, Rand Paul by 13 at 52/39, and Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz each by 11 and 49/38 and 50/39 respectively. Schweitzer does better but still trails Christie 47/39, Paul 50/42, Bush 46/41, and Cruz 46/43.

PPP surveyed 952 Montana voters, including an oversample of 469 usual Republican primary voters and 381 Democratic primary voters, from November 15th to 17th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.2%, +/-4.5% for the GOP sample, and +/-5.0% for the Democratic portion. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Bullock’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 38%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Brian Schweitzer and Republican
Jeb Bush, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 41%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 34%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Brian Schweitzer and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 39%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 39%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Brian Schweitzer and Republican
Ted Cruz, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 43%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 39%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Brian Schweitzer and Republican
Rand Paul, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 42%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q12 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q13 Do you consider yourself to be more a
Montana or Montana State fan when it comes
to college sports?
Montana…………………………………………………. 41%
Montana State ………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q14 Given the choices of the Chicago Bears, Dallas
Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay
Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh
Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, and Seattle
Seahawks, which is your favorite NFL team?
Bears …………………………………………………….. 4%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 6%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 28%
Packers………………………………………………….. 11%
Vikings …………………………………………………… 5%
Steelers………………………………………………….. 4%
49ers……………………………………………………… 5%
Seahawks ………………………………………………. 10%
Someone else/Don’t have a favorite …………… 26%

Q15 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 27%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 38%

Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 6%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 1%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 0%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 1%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 26%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 28%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 12%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 1%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 57%
Man……………………………………………………….. 43%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco
Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 11%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 14%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 20%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 14%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 8%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 10%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 14%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%