Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Montana poll finds a steep drop for Barack Obama in the state
compared to a month ago. He now trails Mitt Romney by 11 points, 52-41. Previously
he had been behind by only 5 points at 50-45.
Montanans have really warmed up to Mitt Romney in the last month. 52% of
voters have a favorable opinion of him to 44% with a negative one. That’s up a
net 9 points from last month when was at a -1 spread (47/48). At the same time
Obama’s already poor approval numbers have sunk even further. He was already at
a 44/54 approval spread last month and that has declined further to 40% now
with 56% of voters disapproving of him.
When Gary Johnson is included in the poll he gets 6% with Romney leading
Obama 50-40. That’s consistent with our general finding that Johnson doesn’t
pull too disproportionately from either Obama or Romney and is thus unlikely to
play a spoiler effect in the contest.
The good news for Democrats is that even as Obama’s standing has
deteriorated in the last month, Jon Tester’s has remained unchanged. Last month
we found him leading Denny Rehberg 45-43 with Libertarian Dan Cox at 8% and
this month we find the exact same numbers for all three candidates. Tester
leads thanks to a 45-36 lead with independents and because he’s taking 88% of
the Democratic vote while only 78% of Republicans stand behind Rehberg.
Montanans aren’t thrilled with the job Tester is doing. 42% approve while
50% disapprove. The reason he has a slight advantage at this point is that they
like Rehberg even less. He has only a 41% approval rating with 52% of voters
disapproving of him.
“Barack Obama’s likely to lose big in Montana this fall but so far Jon
Tester’s hanging on,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“It’s important for Tester that the Libertarian candidate hold on to his
current level of support.”
PPP surveyed 737 likely Montana voters from October 8th
to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6% This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Toplines are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .50%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Denny Rehberg’s job
performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .52%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q8 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Jon Tester, Republican Denny Rehberg, and
Libertarian Dan Cox. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Jon Tester ………………………………………………. 45%
Denny Rehberg……………………………………….. 43%
Dan Cox…………………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Daines?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Gillan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q11 The candidates for Congress are Democrat
Kim Gillan, Republican Steve Daines, and
Libertarian Dave Kaiser. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Kim Gillan ………………………………………………. 34%
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 43%
Dave Kaiser ……………………………………………. 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q12 Do you think the Bureau of Labor Statistics is
manipulating the unemployment numbers to
help Barack Obama, or not?
It is ……………………. .45%
It is not ………………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
Other……………………………………………………… 11%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
