Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest poll
of the Montana Senate race finds Jon Tester with a small lead over Denny
Rehberg, 45-43. Libertarian Dan Cox is polling at 8%, and 3% of voters remain
undecided. This is the second survey in a row where we have found Tester
with the lead. In late April he was up 48-43.
Montana voters aren’t actually happy with the job Tester’s doing. The
negative ads have taken a toll and only 46% of voters approve of him to 48% who
disapprove. But Rehberg’s even more unpopular with just 42% of voters happy
with the job he’s doing in the House to 52% who disapprove. This is the third
Senate race in the last two weeks, along with Ohio and Florida, where we’ve
found both candidates under water. That’s just the new reality with the amount
of outside spending being done on negative ads.
Both candidates have their party base pretty much locked up- Tester’s
winning 89% of Democrats and Rehberg has 88% of Republicans behind him. Tipping
the balance to Tester overall is a 41-33 advantage with independents.
“We’ve polled the Montana Senate race five times and the candidates have
been within two points of each other on four out of those five polls,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It couldn’t be much more of a toss
up.”
Mitt Romney’s the clear favorite in the Presidential race, although perhaps
not by as large a margin as you would expect. He leads Barack Obama 50-45, a 5
point lead unchanged from our last poll of the state in May. Obama is quite
unpopular in Montana, with only 44% of voters approving of him to 54% who
disapprove. But Romney doesn’t lead by a wider margin because he isn’t very
popular in his own right either- 47% of voters rate him favorably to 48% with a
negative opinion.
The race for Montana’s open House seat looks like a toss up. Republican
Steve Daines has a narrow edge over Democratic opponent Kim Gillan, 40-37, with
Libertarian Dave Kaiser at 9%. Gillan has gained 3 points on Daines since our
last poll of the race in the spring.
PPP surveyed 656 likely Montana voters on
September 10th and 11th. The margin of error for the overall survey
is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q5 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 46%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .48%
Not sure …………….. . 6%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Denny Rehberg’s job
performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .52%
Not sure …………….. . 7%
Q8 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Jon Tester, Republican Denny Rehberg, and
Libertarian Dan Cox. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Jon Tester ………………………………………………. 45%
Denny Rehberg……………………………………….. 43%
Dan Cox…………………………………………………. 8%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Daines?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Gillan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 59%
Q11 The candidates for Congress are Democrat
Kim Gillan, Republican Steve Daines, and
Libertarian Dave Kaiser. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Kim Gillan ………………………………………………. 37%
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 40%
Dave Kaiser ……………………………………………. 9%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 33%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 88%
Other……………………………………………………… 12%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 34%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
