Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final polls in Arizona and Montana find Mitt Romney leading by 7 points
and two key Senate races leaning in opposite directions, with Democrat Jon
Tester leading Republican challenger Denny Rehberg 48-46 in Montana and
Republican Jeff Flake leading Democratic foe Richard Carmona 51-46 for the open
seat in Arizona.
Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 and Arizona was thought of
earlier this year as a place where he might be able to expand the map. But he’s
not popular in either state, sporting a 42/53 approval rating in Arizona and
44/53 one in Montana.
We’ve released 4 Montana Senate polls since Labor Day and Tester has led by
2 points in every one of them. Voters are closely split on Tester with 47% of
voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove, but that makes him far more
popular than Rehberg who only has a 37% approval with 54% of voters unhappy
with his performance. The only reason this race is even close is the GOP nature
of the state. Tester’s ahead 50/37 with independents.
Just like in the Missouri Senate contest the Libertarian candidate is worth
keeping an eye on here. Dan Cox is pulling 4% and the fact that his voters
support Romney 56-11 suggests that he’s pulling almost of them from Rehberg.
Cox’s support has already dropped from 7% three weeks ago, and Tester needs for
it to not drop much further.
Richard Carmona led our last Arizona Senate poll, in early October, 45-43.
What’s happened since then is pretty straight forward- the Republican base has
unified around Jeff Flake. He’s gone from pulling 70% of Republicans on that
survey to now 88%. And although Carmona still leads by 5 points with
independents, Flake’s cut that down from a 15 point lead a month ago.
“Our polling in the Montana Senate race has found a small but persistent
lead for Jon Tester,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“But the opportunity for Democrats in Arizona seems to be slipping away.”
PPP surveyed 1,080
likely voters in Arizona and 836 in Montana on November 2nd and 3rd.
The margin of error for Arizona is +/-3.0% and for Montana it’s +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Arizona Toplines
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 1%
Q2 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Richard Carmona and Republican Jeff Flake. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Richard Carmona…………………………………….. 46%
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Carmona?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 35%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Montana Toplines
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Jon Tester, Republican Denny Rehberg, and
Libertarian Dan Cox. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Jon Tester ………………………………………………. 48%
Denny Rehberg……………………………………….. 46%
Dan Cox…………………………………………………. 4%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Steve Bullock, Republican Rick Hill, and
Libertarian Ron Vandevender. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Steve Bullock ………………………………………….. 48%
Rick Hill………………………………………………….. 48%
Ron Vandevender ……………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q4 The candidates for Congress are Democrat
Kim Gillan, Republican Steve Daines, and
Libertarian Dave Kaiser. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Kim Gillan ………………………………………………. 44%
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 48%
Dave Kaiser ……………………………………………. 3%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q5 Ballot initiative I-166 establishes a state policy
that corporations are not entitled to
constitutional rights because they are not
human beings, and charges Montana elected
and appointed officials, state and federal, to
implement that policy. With this policy, the
people of Montana establish that there should
be a level playing field in campaign spending,
in part by prohibiting corporate campaign
contributions and expenditures and by limiting
political spending in elections. Further,
Montana’s congressional delegation is charged
with proposing a joint resolution offering an
amendment to the United States Constitution
establishing that corporations are not human
beings entitled to constitutional rights. If the
election was today, would you vote for or
against initiative 166?
For ………………………………………………………… 59%
Against…………………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .47%
Disapprove…………. .46%
Not sure …………….. . 7%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Denny Rehberg’s job
performance?
Approve …………….. .37%
Disapprove…………. .54%
Not sure …………….. . 9%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Bullock?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Hill?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Daines?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kim Gillan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .44%
Not sure …………….. .15%
Q15 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
Max Baucus or his Republican opponent?
Max Baucus ……….. .45%
Republican
opponent……………..42%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
