Raleigh, N.C.- It’s yet another sign of how
overwhelming the desire is among Democrats for Hillary Clinton to be their
Presidential candidate in 2016 that she’s polling at 52% in Montana despite the
presence of potential home state contender Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer gets
17% with Joe Biden at 9%, Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren at 3%, and no one
else over 1%.
“Our
polling has consistently found that even if there’s a popular home state
candidate it doesn’t matter- a majority of Democrats everywhere want Hillary
Clinton as their candidate in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling.
The top
choice of Republican voters in the state for their candidate is actually Rand
Paul though. He gets 21% to 13% for Bush, 12% for Christie and Ted Cruz, 10%
for Marco Rubio, 9% for Paul Ryan, 6% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% for Susana Martinez.
Montana
voters still don’t support gay marriage, but they’re moving strongly in that
direction. In 2011 we found that voters opposed it by a 14 point margin, with
37% in favor and 51% against. The margin has shifted 8 points in favor since
then and now 42% of voters support it with only 48% opposed. Voters under 45 in
the state support gay marriage by a wide margin, including 61/30 with those
under 30. On the broader issue of legal rights for same sex couples, 71% of
voters in the state at least support civil unions with just 27% opposed to any
sort of legal recognition.
Steve
Bullock continues to be off to a good start in his first year as Governor with
46% of voters approving of him to 29% who disapprove. That makes him the
state’s most popular politician. Jon
Tester’s approval numbers pretty closely mirror the results of his reelection
bid last fall- he’s at a +5 spread with 48% of voters approving of him to 43%
who disapprove. Max Baucus hasn’t received any sort of post retirement boost in
his poll numbers- he continues to be easily the least popular politician in the
state with only 36% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove.
PPP surveyed 807 registered voters between June 21-23,
2013, including 340 Republican primary voters and 316 Democratic primary voters.
The margin of error was +/- 3.4% statewide, +/- 5.6% for the Democratic primary
and +/- 5.3% for the Republican primary. This poll was not authorized or paid
for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted
through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 (Asked of 316 Democratic primary voters)
Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden……………………………………………….. 9%
Cory Booker……………………………………………. 3%
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 52%
Andrew Cuomo ……………………………………….. 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand …………………………………….. 1%
Martin O’Malley……………………………………….. 0%
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 17%
Mark Warner …………………………………………… 0%
Elizabeth Warren …………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%
Q2 (Asked of 340 Republican primary voters)
Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez,
Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 13%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 12%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 12%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 6%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 21%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 10%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 13%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Bullock’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Would you support or oppose requiring
background checks for all gun sales, including
gun shows and the Internet?
Support ………………………………………………….. 58%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
It should be allowed …………………………………. 42%
It should not ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..39%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………32%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q9 Would you support or oppose expanding
Medicaid in Montana to cover 70,000 more
residents of the state?
Support ………………………………………………….. 46%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 40%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q12 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Brian Schweitzer and Republican
Jeb Bush, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 48%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Brian Schweitzer and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Brian Schweitzer ……………………………………… 42%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Do you consider yourself to be more a
Montana or Montana State fan when it comes
to college sports?
Montana…………………………………………………. 39%
Montana State ………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q15 Do you support or oppose Kanye West and
Kim Kardashian’s decision to name their baby
North West?
Support ………………………………………………….. 9%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 32%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 39%
Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
Other……………………………………………………… 13%
Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
