Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Reflections on Last Night

It's hard for me to decide what to make of our polling in last night's races in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri.

On one hand our numbers didn't come very close to giving a precise measure of the final outcome. Rick Santorum did much better in each state than our numbers had projected.

On the other hand we were the only polling company that did any surveys in any of those three races. No one else even tried because of the difficulty in identifying the electorate for such low turnout caucuses and beauty contests. And although they didn't measure the full magnitude of it, our surveys did pick up that there was some major momentum for Rick Santorum in these states. There weren't really any other indicators that was coming- Santorum had done poorly in every contest since Iowa- and if not for our polls last night's results really would have come as a shock to people.

Big day possible for Santorum

Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today's contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He's at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

Big Day for Santorum?

Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today's contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He's at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

Santorum's personal popularity is the main reason for his sudden reemergence as a relevant player in the GOP race.  In all 3 of these states his favorability is over 70%- 74/17 in Minnesota, 72/17 in Missouri, and 71/19 in Colorado. He's far better liked than his main opponents- Romney's favorability is 47-60% in those states and Gingrich's is 47-48%. While Romney and Gingrich have hammered each other in recents weeks Santorum's been largely left alone and he's benefiting from that now.

Close race in Minnesota, Romney up in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C. – Last night's results in Nevada were bad news for Newt Gingrich and PPP's first day of polling in Colorado and Minnesota indicates things may only get worse for him in the coming days.

In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his  one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.

Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.

Romney up in Colorado, close race in Minnesota

Last night's results in Nevada were bad news for Newt Gingrich and PPP's first day of polling in Colorado and Minnesota indicates things may only get worse for him in the coming days.

In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his  one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.

Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.

What both states have in common is that Gingrich has fallen precipitously since our last polls in them. In Colorado Gingrich was in first place with a 19 point lead in early December. His support has declined 19 points since then and his net favorability has dropped 33 points from +41 (64/23) to only +8 (49/41). Gingrich has had a similarly large decline in Minnesota, but there it's much more abrupt.  We polled the state only two weeks ago but in that time he's dropped 14 points from 36% to 22%, and his favorability has 26 points from +34 (59/25) to +8 (47/39). That after glow from South Carolina has worn off real fast.

Tuesday has the potential to be a big day for Rick Santorum. In addition to these two polls, a Missouri survey we conducted last weekend found him with 45% to 34% for Romney and 13% for Paul. Given how quickly things have moved in this race I wouldn't assume Santorum still has that lead, especially given the momentum Romney has after big wins in Florida and Nevada. But nevertheless it looks like Santorum has a decent chance at wins in Minnesota and Missouri, and a second place finish in Colorado. 72 hours from now he may have supplanted Gingrich as the top alternative to Romney.

Minnesota Misc.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you think Wisconsin voters should recall
Governor Scott Walker, or not?
Wisconsin voters should recall Walker............ 38%
They should not .............................................. 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q2 Do you think the Minnesota Constitution should
be amended to require a three-fifths
supermajority of the State Legislature in order
to impose a new tax or raise existing taxes, or
not?
Would support a constitutional amendment
requiring a supermajority of state legislators
in order to raise taxes .....................................36%
Would not........................................................ 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 25%

Q3 Do you think the Minnesota Constitution should
be amended to prevent state government
shutdowns and prevent lawmakers and the
governor from taking paychecks during a
shutdown, or not?
Would support a constitutional amendment to
prevent a state government shutdown............56%
Would not........................................................ 27%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

More Minnesota Issues

We polled on a few potential Minnesota ballot amendments. Voters are divided on whether to require a three-fifths legislative supermajority in order to raise taxes, with 36% supporting and 39% opposed. 54% of Republicans support the amendment but just 17% of Democrats do. Independents are split 37-39.

Minnesotans are still angry over last year’s state government shutdown.  A majority would support a constitutional amendment to prevent future state government shutdowns and prevent lawmakers and the Governor from drawing paychecks during a shutdown, 56-27.

Voters are split on whether their neighbors in Wisconsin should recall Governor Scott Walker, with 38% of voters each saying they should or should not. 23% aren’t sure. 72% of Minnesota Democrats think Walker should be recalled, 74% of Republicans think he shouldn’t, and independent voters are split with 34% favoring a recall and 37% opposed.

Voters are also divided on whether the US should use military force to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, 40-37. Democrats are against the idea with just 29% supporting the potential use of force and 53% opposed. Republicans support the use of force 56-21. Independents are split 35-37.

Finally, we asked about the Stop Online Piracy Act. Among voters who know what it is, SOPA remains deeply unpopular, with just 5% supporting and 32% opposed. Despite the recent media flurry over SOPA, a full 64% of respondents “have no idea what the heck” it is.

Full results here.

Dayton sees strong approval in Minnesota

Raleigh, N.C. – Minnesota DFL Governor Mark Dayton holds a +19 job approval rating, with 53% of voters approving of his job performance as Governor and 34% disapproving. His support is fueled by near-unanimous approval among Democrats (85-5)  and strong approval among Independents (51-33).

Voters aren’t as approving of the Legislature, disapproving of the job the DFL members are doing by a 31-49 margin, but holding an even worse opinion of Republican members at 23-62. Perhaps as a result, voters say they would support a DFL candidate over a Republican candidate for state legislature by a 48-39 margin.