Raleigh,
N.C. – Democrat Al
Franken leads four potential GOP challengers by 6 to 14 points in the 2014
campaign for his Minnesota Senate seat, according to PPP’s latest poll.
Voters
approve of Franken’s job performances by an 11 point margin, 52% to 41%. Franken’s
approval numbers generally break down along party lines: 89% of Democrats
approve, 83% of Republicans disapprove, and support from independents is about
even at 46/45. Moderate voters approve of the job Franken is doing as Senator
62% to 30%.
In
hypothetical 2014 match-ups, Franken leads Norm Coleman by 6 points (50/44),
John Kline by 8 points (49/41), Erik Paulsen by 11 points (50/39) and Michele
Bachmann by 14 points (54/40). Support from moderate and female voters gives
Franken a decisive edge against most of these potential Republican candidates.
“At this
point Franken looks like a relatively safe bet for re-election to the Senate in
2014,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “None of Franken’s
likely Republican challengers look like they pose a serious threat at this
point.”
Bachmann
is the clear favorite among Republican primary voters with 45% support,
followed by John Kline (19%), Chip Cravaack (13%), Erik Paulsen (11%), Laura
Brod (4%) and Rich Stanek (2%). 6% of respondents support someone else or are
undecided.
Not
surprisingly, Bachmann is the popular choice because of strong support among
conservative GOP voters. The biggest problem for Kline and Paulsen is lack of
name recognition. More than half of respondents expressed no opinion about
either GOP candidate—51% for Kline and 55% for Paulsen.
Despite
surviving a tough re-election campaign in 2012, Bachmann remains decidedly
unpopular statewide in Minnesota. Just 35% of voters view her favorably
compared to 59% who view her unfavorably.
PPP surveyed 1,065 Minnesota voters and 275 usual Republican
primary voters from January 18th to 20th. The margin of
error for the overall sample is +/-3.0% and +/-5.9% for the GOP portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Franken’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .52%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. . 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Norm Coleman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Kline?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 51%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Erik Paulsen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Michele
Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 54%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm
Coleman, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 50%
Norm Coleman………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican John
Kline, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 49%
John Kline………………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Erik
Paulsen, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 50%
Erik Paulsen……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 (Asked of 275 Republican primary voters)
Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Laura
Brod, Chip Cravaack, John Kline, Erik Paulsen,
and Rich Stanek, who would you most like to
see as the Republican candidate for Senate
next year?
Michele Bachmann .45%
Laura Brod…………. . 4%
Chip Cravaack ……. .13%
John Kline………….. .19%
Erik Paulsen……….. .11%
Rich Stanek ……….. . 2%
Someone else/Not
sure…………………….6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
