Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s final Minnesota poll of the 2012 election cycle finds Barack Obama
leading comfortably, 53-45. We’ve conducted four surveys of the state since
Labor Day and found Obama leading by a margin in the 7-10 point range on each
of them.
Obama doesn’t have great approval numbers in the state, with 49% of voters
giving him good marks to 45% who disapprove. But voters aren’t big on Romney
either with 43% rating him favorably to 49% who have a negative view of him.
Obama’s winning thanks in particular to large margins with women (58/39) and
voters under 30 (71/27).
The more interesting findings on our final Minnesota poll deal with the
state’s high profile amendments to ban gay marriage and require voter
identification. We find both narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they’ll vote
for the gay marriage ban, compared to 52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say
they’ll support the voter ID amendment to 51% who are opposed.
The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide.
Seniors support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it,
including a 36/62 margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it
(79%) and Democrats oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents
tip the balance by opposing it 41/55.
The reason the voter ID amendment now appears to be in serious trouble is
that Democrats (82%) are just as opposed to it as Republicans (82%) are
supportive of it. We’ve found Republicans strongly supportive of the concept
all year, but Democrats have moved sharply against it from 36% support in June
to now just 14%.
“The Presidential race in Minnesota is not competitive,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “But the state will get a lot of national
attention on election night if it turns down the proposed gay marriage ban and
voter identification law.”
PPP surveyed 1,164
likely voters on November 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-2.9%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?
Yes………………………………………………………… 45%
No …………………………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Won’t vote on the amendment …………………… 0%
Q3 Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to require all voters to present valid
photo identification to vote and to require the
state to provide free identification to eligible
voters?
Yes………………………………………………………… 46%
No …………………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Won’t vote on the amendment …………………… 0%
Q4 The candidates for Senate are Democrat Amy
Klobuchar and Republican Kurt Bills. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Amy Klobuchar ……………………………………….. 62%
Kurt Bills…………………………………………………. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal……………………………………………………… 49%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy
Klobuchar’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 60%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kurt Bills?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
Governor today, would you vote for Democrat
Mark Dayton or his Republican opponent?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 51%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Franken’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the Senate today, would you vote for Democrat
Al Franken or his Republican opponent?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 48%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 21%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 16%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 32%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 18%
