Raleigh, N.C. – Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton continues to have very solid approval numbers, and leads every potential Republican we tested against him for reelection by at least 8 points.
53% of voters approve of the job Dayton is doing to 39% who disapprove. He has twice as many Republicans (14%) who approve of the job he’s doing as Democrats (7%) who are unhappy with his performance, and he’s also on positive ground with independents at 49/40.
Right now Norm Coleman seems like Dayton’s most likely foe next year, and if he wants the nomination Republican voters in the state want him to have it. 57% say they’d like him to be their candidate next year with no one else who we threw into the mix getting more than 5%. But Coleman’s not that popular with the general electorate- 35% see him favorably to 43% with a negative opinion- and in a hypothetical head to head with Dayton he trails by a 52/39 margin.
The only person we tested who comes closer to Dayton than that is Tim Pawlenty in the event of an unlikely comeback attempt to his previous office. But even he trails Dayton 50/42 in a hypothetical head to head. Pawlenty is no longer a popular figure in Minnesota with 44% of voters rating him positively to 50% with a negative opinion and his strength as a future political candidate in the state is probably overrated, at least until he does some image rehabilitation.
“Mark Dayton’s in a pretty solid position for reelection,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s popular on his own merits, and none
of his potential Republican opponents appear to be particularly strong at this
point- most of them are unknown and the ones who are well known aren’t very
popular.”
PPP surveyed 1,065 Minnesota voters and 275 usual Republican
primary voters from January 18th to 20th. The margin of
error for the overall sample is +/-3.0% and +/-5.9% for the GOP portion. This
poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .53%
Disapprove…………. .39%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Norm Coleman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Keith Downey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julie Rosen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kurt Zellers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Norm
Coleman, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 52%
Norm Coleman………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Keith
Downey, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 53%
Keith Downey………………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Jeff
Johnson, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 53%
Jeff Johnson …………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 50%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Julie
Rosen, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 52%
Julie Rosen…………………………………………….. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Kurt
Zellers, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 52%
Kurt Zellers …………………………………………….. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q14 (Asked only of 275 Republican primary voters)
Given the choices of Norm Coleman, Keith
Downey, David Hann, Jeff Johnson, Julie
Rosen, Marty Seifert, and Kurt Zellers, who
would you most like to see as the Republican
candidate for Governor next year?
Norm Coleman……. .57%
Keith Downey……… . 4%
David Hann ………… . 4%
Jeff Johnson ………. . 4%
Julie Rosen………… . 5%
Marty Seifert ………. . 4%
Kurt Zellers ………… . 5%
Someone else/Not
sure……………………27%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 22%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 14%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
