Ohio a Toss Up, Democrats Lead in Minnesota

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-PPP’s new Ohio poll, conducted for Innovation Ohio, finds that the state is likely to return to its traditional battleground status next year. Donald Trump has a 47/51 favorability rating and trails a generic Democratic opponent 48-47 in the state he won by 8 points in 2016. Trump is down double digits with both crucial independent (51-37) and suburban (53-40) voters.

In named head to heads Joe Biden leads Trump 48-46, and Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders both tie him at 47. Trump has a 47-43 advantage over both Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg.

Ohioans narrowly support the impeachment inquiry 49/47, showing that even in states that went pretty strongly for Trump last time around there’s openness to the thought of impeachment and that it’s not inspiring the kind of backlash some thought it might.

You can see more from our Ohio poll for Innovation Ohio here.

-PPP’s new Minnesota poll, conducted for A Better Minnesota, finds that Trump trails a generic Democrat 52-42 in the state. The Trump campaign has made a lot of noise about contesting Minnesota next year after coming within 2 points in the state in 2016, but our numbers indicate that his standing there has declined quite a bit. 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 55% with a negative one and the numbers are even worse for him among voters who have strong feelings with just 34% saying they have a ‘very favorable’ opinion of him and 50% saying they have a ‘very unfavorable’ opinion of him.

Minnesota had 5 competitive Congressional races next year so we also polled on the politics of impeachment as it might relate to the battle for control of the US House next year. 51% of voters say they’d prefer to vote for a Democrat who supports impeachment, to 42% who say they’d prefer to vote for a Republican who opposes impeachment.

You can see more from our Minnesota poll for A Better Minnesota here.

-PPP’s new Maine poll finds that Susan Collins’ political standing is hurt no matter what she does on impeachment and that that issue, combined with a loss of her crossover Democratic support after voting to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, could bring an end to her Senate career. Collins already trails a generic Democratic opponent 44-41. Mainers support impeachment 53-44 and if Collins opposes it, her deficit against a generic Democrat grows to 7 points at 47-40. But if she supports impeachment her deficit against a generic Democrat also grows, to 6 points at 38-32. And a vote for impeachment could also lose her the Republican nomination. Right now GOP voters generally say they want her to be the Republican nominee 53-38. But if she supported impeachment there’s a 35 point net shift from her leading by 15 points to trailing by 20 points with only 35% of Republicans then wanting her to be the nominee to 55% who would prefer someone else.

Maine was surprisingly close in 2016, with Hillary Clinton winning it by only 3 points. It doesn’t appear likely to be that close again this time around- Donald Trump trails Joe Biden 54-42, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders each 53-43, Pete Buttigieg 52-43, and Kamala Harris 50-44. Warren is the top choice of Democrats in the state at 31% to 19% for Biden, 12% for Sanders, and 9% for Buttigieg with everyone else below 5%.

You can see more from our Maine poll here.

-PPP’s new North Carolina poll finds that only 46% of voters in the state approve of the job Donald Trump is doing to 51% who disapprove, in a state that Trump won by 4 points in 2016. Biden leads Trump 51-46, Warren leads him 49-46, and Sanders leads him 50-47. Trump and Harris tie at 47, and Trump leads Buttigieg 47-46.

Thanks to overwhelming support from black voters Biden leads the primary in the state with 39% to 22% for Warren, 9% for Buttigieg, and 6% for Sanders, with everyone else below 5%. Warren is up 31-26 on Biden with white voters, but Biden leads her 63-3 with African Americans. It’s worth noting though that black voters actually do like Warren- she has a 69/9 favorability rating with them- so she may have more room to grow further along in the process.

Thom Tillis has a 22% approval rating, with 44% of voters disapproving of him. Even with Republicans he has only a 40% approval rating- which is why he’s having to fight back a primary challenge from Garland Tucker. His support from Democrats (9/59) and independents (22/48) is negligible, making it likely this will be one of the most vulnerable Senate seats for the GOP to hold next year.

You can see more from our North Carolina poll here.

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