Polls

Franken, Dayton lead re-election bids against unknowns

| Tom Jensen

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Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest Minnesota poll finds incumbent Senator Al Franken and incumbent Governor Mark Dayton both with double digit leads in their bids for reelection this fall.

Al Franken leads each of his potential Republican opponents by double digits. He leads Jim Abeler 50/39, David Carlson 49/38, Mike McFadden 49/38, Patrick Munro 50/35, and O. Savior 50/33. Franken picks up at least 60% of the moderate vote in each of these potential match-ups, including double-digit support among Republicans against Abeler and Carlson.

Franken’s leads are partly due to the fact that all of the Republican candidates are virtual unknowns, as over 70% of voters have no opinion on each of the Republicans. Even among those that have an opinion, the Republicans tend to be viewed unfavorably. Meanwhile, Franken boasts a positive approval rating with 50% of voters approving of his job performance and 40% disapproving.

The Governor’s race appears to be playing out along the same lines, as incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton also leads every potential Republican candidate by ten or more points. He leads Merrill Anderson 47/35, Scott Honour 47/35, Jeff Johnson 47/36, Marty Seifert 47/36, and Kurt Zellers 47/37. While the Republican candidates for Governor are slightly better known than those for the Senate, they are still unknowns, as over 60% of voters have no opinion on each candidate.

“The races for Governor and Senate in Minnesota have been remarkably consistent over the last 8 months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Al Franken and Mark Dayton had leads just over double digits then and that’s remained the case as their opponents have struggled to get traction.”

Franken’s fellow Senator Amy Klobuchar has an even stronger approval rating, with 56% approving of her performance and 32% disapproving. Meanwhile, President Obama’s approval rating in the state sits at 44% approve and 50% disapprove.

PPP surveyed 633 registered voters from June 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.9%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy
Klobuchar’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .56%
Disapprove…………. .32%
Not sure …………….. .13%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Franken’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .50%
Disapprove…………. .40%
Not sure …………….. .10%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Abeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Carlson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McFadden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 71%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick Munro?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of O. Savior?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%

Q9 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Jim
Abeler, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 50%
Jim Abeler ………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q10 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican David
Carlson, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 49%
David Carlson …………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q11 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Mike
McFadden, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 49%
Mike McFadden ………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q12 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican Patrick
Munro, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 50%
Patrick Munro………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q13 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were
Democrat Al Franken and Republican O.
Savior, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 50%
O. Savior………………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .41%
Not sure …………….. .11%

Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Merrill Anderson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%

Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Honour?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 9%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%

Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marty Seifert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%

Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kurt Zellers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%

Q20 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Merrill
Anderson, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 47%
Merrill Anderson………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q21 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Scott
Honour, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 47%
Scott Honour…………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q22 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Jeff
Johnson, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 47%
Jeff Johnson …………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q23 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Marty
Seifert, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 47%
Marty Seifert …………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q24 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Kurt
Zellers, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 47%
Kurt Zellers …………………………………………….. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q25 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 6%

Q26 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q28 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 28%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 35%

Q29 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
Other……………………………………………………… 15%

Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%

Q31 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

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