Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Minnesota poll finds that Senator Al Franken’s numbers remain strong entering his reelection campaign in 2014, while Governor Mark Dayton holds a ten point lead over potential Republican challengers who are struggling to gain traction.
Franken’s approval rating among registered voters in Minnesota is at 51/43; almost identical to his 51/42 approval rating from our last polls in May. The senator consistently leads would-be opponents Jim Abeler 50-39, Chris Dahlberg 49-39, Mike McFadden 49-38, Julianne Ortman 49-37 and Monti Moreno 49-36.
Mark Dayton’s numbers are also constant, and still strong, since our polling in May. The governor’s approval rating is currently 48/42, compared to 49/47 in the spring. Dayton sports a steady 10 or 11 point lead over Republican challengers Scott Honour 48-38, Jeff Johnson 48-37, Julie Rosen 48-36, Marty Seifert 48-37, Dave Thompson 48-37 and Kurt Zellers 48-38.
Republican challengers to Franken and Dayton seem to have serious name-recognition issues heading into 2014. When asked about the favorability of potential challengers to Franken, 77% to 83% of voters were unsure, and Dayton’s opponents are hovering between 66%-80% as basically unknown.
“Al Franken and Mark Dayton have positive approval numbers,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Combine that with their GOP opponents being largely unknown and it’s the recipe for double digit leads one year out from election day.”
57% of Twins fans in Minnesota support the retention of manager Ron Gardenhire, who just signed a two-year extension, even though the 2010 AL Manager of the Year has lost 90+ games every season since that award. In almost identical contrast, 56% of Minnesota Vikings fans want head coach Leslie Frazer fired after 2013.
PPP surveyed 895 Minnesota voters, including an oversample of 305 usual Republican primary voters, between October 27-29, 2013. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.3%, and +/- 5.7% for the GOP portion. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Amy
Klobuchar’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .59%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. . 8%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Al
Franken’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .51%
Disapprove…………. .43%
Not sure …………….. . 6%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Abeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Dahlberg?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McFadden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julianne Ortman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Monti Moreno?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q9 If the candidates for U.S. Senate next year
were Democrat Al Franken and Republican Jim
Abeler, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 50%
Jim Abeler ………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 If the candidates for U.S. Senate next year
were Democrat Al Franken and Republican
Chris Dahlberg, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 49%
Chris Dahlberg………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 If the candidates for U.S. Senate next year
were Democrat Al Franken and Republican
Mike McFadden, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 49%
Mike McFadden ………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q12 If the candidates for U.S. Senate next year
were Democrat Al Franken and Republican
Julianne Ortman, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 49%
Julianne Ortman ……………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 If the candidates for U.S. Senate next year
were Democrat Al Franken and Republican
Monti Moreno, who would you vote for?
Al Franken ……………………………………………… 49%
Monti Moreno………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mark Dayton’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .48%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .10%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Honour?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q16 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 80%
Q17 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julie Rosen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marty Seifert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q20 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kurt Zellers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%
Q21 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Scott
Honour, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 48%
Scott Honour…………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q22 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Jeff
Johnson, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 48%
Jeff Johnson …………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q23 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Julie
Rosen, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 48%
Julie Rosen…………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q24 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Marty
Seifert, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 48%
Marty Seifert …………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q25 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Dave
Thompson, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 48%
Dave Thompson ……………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q26 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Kurt
Zellers, who would you vote for?
Mark Dayton …………………………………………… 48%
Kurt Zellers …………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q27 Do you consider yourself to be a Minnesota
Twins fan, or not?
Do …………………………………………………………. 66%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 34%
Q28 (Asked only of Twins fans:) Do you think Ron
Gardenhire should return as manager for the
2014 season, or do you think he should be
replaced?
Think he should return ……………………………… 57%
Think he should be replaced……………………… 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q29 Do you consider yourself to be a Minnesota
Vikings fan, or not?
Do …………………………………………………………. 57%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 43%
Q30 (Q30-31 asked only of Vikings fans) Do you
think the Vikings’ starting quarterback should
be Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman, or Christian
Ponder?
Matt Cassel…………………………………………….. 25%
Josh Freeman…………………………………………. 22%
Christian Ponder ……………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q31 Do you think Leslie Frazier should return as
coach for the 2014 season, or do you think he
should be replaced?
Think he should return ……………………………… 27%
Think he should be replaced……………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q32 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q33 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 24%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 15%
Q34 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q35 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 38%
Republican……………………………………………… 27%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 34%
Q36 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 90%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%
Q37 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Abeler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Dahlberg?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike McFadden?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julianne Ortman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Monti Moreno?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q6 Given the choices of Jim Abeler, Chris
Dahlberg, Mike McFadden, Julianne Ortman,
and Monti Moreno, who would you most like to
see as the Republican candidate for Senate
next year?
Jim Abeler ………………………………………………. 12%
Chris Dahlberg………………………………………… 10%
Mike McFadden ………………………………………. 11%
Julianne Ortman ……………………………………… 12%
Monti Moreno………………………………………….. 2%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Honour?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Julie Rosen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marty Seifert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 77%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kurt Zellers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 16%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q13 Given the choices of Scott Honour, Jeff
Johnson, Julie Rosen, Marty Seifert, Dave
Thompson, and Kurt Zellers, who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for Governor next year?
Scott Honour…………………………………………… 6%
Jeff Johnson …………………………………………… 8%
Julie Rosen…………………………………………….. 10%
Marty Seifert …………………………………………… 9%
Dave Thompson ……………………………………… 11%
Kurt Zellers …………………………………………….. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 44%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q16 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 56%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
