Public Policy Polling

Arizona voters split on Jan Brewer’s job performance

Raleigh, N.C. – Arizona voters are divided on whether they approve of Governor Jan Brewer’s job performance, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. 46% of voters approve of the Governor’s job performance while 47% disapprove. Democrats strongly  disapprove (15/84), Republicans strongly approve (75/18), and a majority of independent voters disapprove (35/54). Most voters would oppose a recall of Governor Brewer, with just 35% supporting such an idea and 58% opposed.

“Voters generally aren’t thrilled with Jan Brewer’s job performance, but they don’t dislike her enough to recall her,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Obama has comfortable leads in Washington state

Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney’s fortunes have really been sinking in PPP’s look ahead to the fall campaign, to the point where he routinely now performs worse against President Obama than the surging Rick Santorum does.  Indeed, in Washington state, Romney not only trails Santorum with general election voters, but also Ron Paul.

Romney trails Obama by 15 points (53-38).  That is two points better than McCain did in 2008, but one point worse than poll respondents’ self-reported 2008 vote, and a full three points worse than Santorum, who trails by only 12 points (52-40), and two points worse than Paul, who lags by 13 (51-38).  Only Gingrich would be a worse nominee at this point; he would get blown out by 20 points (55-35).

MLB and NFL teams are Michigan’s favorite pro teams

Raleigh, N.C. – Michigan voters list Major League Baseball’s Detroit Tigers and the NFL’s Detroit Lions as their two most favorite pro sports teams in Michigan, a new Public Policy Polling survey surrounding various pro and college sports topics finds. When asked which is their favorite pro sports team, 29% of voters said the Detroit Tigers, 27% said the Lions, 20% choose the NHL’s Red Wings, and just 6% said the NBA’s Pistons were their favorite pro team. 17% said someone else was their favorite or they weren’t sure.

African-American voters preferred the Detroit Lions (54%) and Detroit Pistons (23%) for a total of 77% of African-American voters choosing Michigan’s pro football or basketball team as their favorite.  Conversely, while many white voters also chose the Lions (24%), a majority of 55%  of white voters chose MLB’s Tigers (33%) or the NHL’s Red Wings (22%).

Obama surges to tie with Romney in Arizona

Raleigh, N.C. – As part of their nationwide rejuvenation, President Obama is now competitive in his 2008 opponent’s home state, and Rick Santorum performs better against the president than does Mitt Romney.  Obama and Romney are tied at 47% in Arizona, while Santorum leads the president, 47-46.

Romney led the president by seven points (49-42) when PPP last polled the state in November.  His personal image continues to take a hit as the primary battle wages on.  56% of Arizonans see him unfavorably and only 35% favorably; previously, it was 51-38.  Santorum was not tested then, but he stands at 39-52 now.

Washington governor’s race a dead heat

Raleigh, N.C. – Washington Gubernatorial candidates Democrat Jay Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna are tied with 42% each, with 16% of voters undecided, a new survey of Washington voters from Public Policy Polling finds. About 1/3 of voters still don’t know enough about each candidate to form an opinion of them, with 36% holding a favorable opinion of Inslee, 28% unfavorable, and 36% not sure. Rob McKenna sees a 39% favorable rating, 29% unfavorable, and 32% not sure. Last May, our polling found the race in a similar position with 38% supporting Inslee, 40% supporting McKenna and 22% not sure.  

The Attorney General’s race looks similarly close, with 34% supporting Republican Reagan Dunn, 32% supporting Democrat Bob Ferguson and 34% undecided.

Republicans hold advantage to keep Kyl seat

Raleigh, N.C. – Three months ago, Richard Carmona was clearly the most electable of the two Democrats vying to flip Jon Kyl’s Arizona Senate seat, but now there is very little difference between he and Don Bivens, and they both continue to trail either Republican tested against them.  They each lag likely Republican nominee Jeff Flake by 11-point (46-35) margins, and Carmona does nary better against longshot challenger Wil Cardon, lagging 37-33, versus Bivens’ 38-32.  In November, Carmona trailed Cardon by only two points (35-33) and Flake by four (40-36), while Bivens lagged by respective eight- (35-27) and ten-point margins (42-32).

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

Santorum leads Romney by 11 in Washington

Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by double digits in advance of the March 3^rd Republican caucuses, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Santorum leads Romney 38%-27%, with Ron Paul taking 15% and Newt Gingrich placing 4^th with 12%. Santorum benefits from very high favorability numbers, with 69% of caucusgoers holding a favorable opinion of him and just 18% unfavorable. Mitt Romney also has a net positive favorability rating, but voters opinion of him is more lukewarm at 47% - 42%.  Ron Paul (38/49) and Newt Gingrich (39/46) had net unfavorable opinion ratings.

Santorum would benefit greatly if Newt Gingrich were to leave the race. Without Gingrich in the field, Santorum’s lead over Romney expands to 21 points, 49-28. Among current Gingrich supporters, Santorum is the second choice of 55% of them compared to just 16% who say they would go to Romney.

Romney holds small lead in Arizona

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for President in Arizona looks like a close one, with Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum only 36-33. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%.

Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, but the gap isn't as wide as we're finding in a lot of other states. Santorum's at +34 (61/27), while Romney's at +24 (58/34).

Santorum and Romney are both generally winning the same groups we find them winning in Michigan and nationally right now. The reason Romney's leading in Arizona but trailing in those other places is that he's at least staying competitive with the groups he tends to be weaker with. For instance he's only down by 11 points with Tea Party voters, 43-32. He's only down 13 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' 44-31. And he's down just 18 with Evangelicals, 45-27. Those are all groups he's losing by more than 25 points in Michigan right now.

Romney gaining on Santorum in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.