It’s an over simplification but we tend to think the country is about 45% Democratic, 45% Republican, and 10% voters who are just unhappy with whoever is in charge and flip back and forth from election to election, fueling the kind of volatility we’ve seen in recent American politics.
Two polls we did recently for our friends at House Majority PAC in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District and Arizona’s 6th Congressional District exemplify that. We find Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke leading Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden 44-42 in WI-3 and Democratic challenger Joanna Mendoza leading Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani 42-41 in AZ-6.
In both cases the Republican incumbents are unpopular and the shutdown isn’t helping them. Van Orden has a 38/48 favorability rating and only 36% think he’s doing his job to end the shutdown while 45% think he isn’t. Ciscomani has a 32/49 favorability and only 29% think he’s doing his job to end the shutdown while 46% think he isn’t.
And in both cases we are seeing those voters who are unhappy with everyone moving against them. We polled both these districts at this exact same time last year and in both cases correctly found the Republican leading for reelection. Van Orden was tied with independents, good enough in a district with a GOP party ID advantage. And Ciscomani led by 14 points with them.
The voters who don’t like anyone leaned Republican last year with a Democrat in the White House. It’s a different story now. Van Orden trails Cooke by 9 with independents. And Ciscomani trails Mendoza by 3, a 17 point shift. Democrats are also more unified around their candidate than Republicans are in both districts.
That dynamic has Democrats fueled for big gains over at least the next two and perhaps the next four years.
Other notes:
-Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District was a coin flip race in the first Trump midterm and a new poll we did for Democratic challenger Bob Harvie recently finds him tied with Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick at 41% in this one, even after Fitzpatrick won his race by 13 points last year.
Fitzpatrick is unpopular with a 32% approval rating to 47% who disapprove, and Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the district with a 45/52 approval spread is likely to make it harder for Fitzpatrick to get the kind of crossover support he’s accustomed to. Meanwhile Harvie is well liked among the voters who are familiar with him.
-Finally recent polls we did for the DGA in New Jersey and Virginia found Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger leading 49-43 and 52-43 respectively. We do not believe these races to be all that competitive.
