Last night’s 13 point improvement for Democrats relative to 2024 in TN CD 7 was reflective of something PPP is seeing in a lot of its polling- that shift is putting new seats on the map for Democrats.
Last year Bill Huizenga won reelection by 12 points in Michigan’s 4th Congressional District. But our new poll there finds Democratic challenger Sean McCann trailing Huizenga just 44-42…and with a clear path to victory since most undecideds are unhappy with Donald Trump. That’s something we’re seeing in a lot of our polling that may lead to Democratic candidates over performing their current numbers when voters move off the fence next year.
The Cook Political Report reasonably has MI-4 rated as ‘Likely Republican’ based on its voting history. But the map is shifting- we have polled three districts in that rating category in recent months and all three of them- PA-1 and TX-15 as well- have come out as toss ups. We imagine if we polled more ‘Likely Republican’ districts we would find more new opportunities.
We also recently did a poll in a toss up district, PA CD 10, and found it is trending toward a clear Democratic advantage with Janelle Stelson leading Republican incumbent Scott Perry 48-44.
It’s an oversimplification but it may turn out in this climate that the toss ups lean Democratic, the lean Republicans are actually toss ups, and the likely Republicans are only a nominal advantage for the GOP with a clear path to upsets for the Democratic candidates.
We’re also seeing new opportunities crop up for Democrats in races that on paper are even more of a reach. In recent weeks we’ve polled several contests in places that voted for Trump by 15-20 points last year and found that the Republican incumbents are unpopular and their reelections start out with them leading by only mid single digits- and in the low 40s, giving their challengers clear potential to grow as they become better known.
We’re doing more of this sort of polling on the federal level but the same opportunities emerging in Congressional elections are definitely emerging in legislative elections across the country too- Democrats will want to make sure they have serious candidates in any district that was closer than about Trump +20 last year- even if they don’t win they can make Republican incumbents work for it and divert resources from other races.
