PPP did several polls last week in what might usually be considered ‘reach’ Republican held Congressional districts that found some pretty encouraging news for Democrats.

Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District voted for Donald Trump by 8 points last year and is represented by seven term Republican Ann Wagner who’s never had an election closer than 4 points. On paper that shouldn’t be an opportunity for Democrats.

But we found that Wagner is unpopular, with only 32% of voters approving of the job she’s doing to 49% who disapprove.

She’s facing the same problem a lot of Trump era Republicans are- she has virtually no crossover popularity whatsoever. But she’s also kind of soft with her own party base- Trump takes up so much oxygen with a certain subset of his voters that he ends up being the only politician they really like. That has major turnout implications for other Republicans when he’s not on the ballot.

Wagner trails a generic Democratic opponent 47-46. These numbers are very reminiscent of what we were seeing in 2017 in districts like that that ended up flipping to the Democrats the next year.

We also did a poll last week (for our friends at the Voter Protection Project) in New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District, which voted for Trump by an ever wider margin of 13 points. But his standing there has declined from November and now he has only a +4 favorability rating at 48/44.

Trump’s declining popularity makes life harder for Congressional Republicans and we see that here- only 39% of voters want to reelect four term incumbent Jeff Van Drew while 42% think it’s time for someone else.

We’re still 17 months from the 2026 midterms- but we’re already seeing pretty strong evidence that the map of Democratic opportunities in it is widening.

If we can be of use with polling anything- whether it’s more US House races, things on the ballot this year, statewide contests for next year, or issue polling- please send us an email.