PPP’s new Iowa poll finds that Joni Ernst is unpopular and could face a tough fight for reelection next year.
Only 39% of voters approve of the job Ernst is doing to 47% who disapprove. Just 38% say they want to reelect her to 52% who prefer someone new, and a match up with a generic Democratic opponent is virtually tied with Ernst getting 45% and her hypothetical foe 43%.
Ernst has gotten a lot of attention in recent days over her comments about Medicaid cuts in the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill,’ and that issue is particularly hurting her with voters. She has a 28% approval rating when it comes to her work specifically on the Medicaid issue, with 49% disapproving. Overall voters oppose the bill by a 55/35 margin.
69% of voters have heard about Ernst’s recent comment that we’re all going to die, and she’s facing fallout from it. By a 37 point margin those familiar with what she said report being less likely to vote for her next year.
Ernst’s numbers follow a common pattern we are seeing for Republican Senators up for reelection next year where there’s near unanimous opposition to her among voters across party lines, but her numbers are also tepid within her base. She has just a 3% approval rating with Harris voters and even with Trump voters she’s at only 68%. That lends itself to questions about how strong Republican turnout will be in a midterm with Ernst leading the ticket.
Ernst fares poorly on several other measures we tested in the poll. 35% characterize her as a strong leader, while 47% call her weak. And only 31% consider her to be an independent voice for Iowa, while 53% say she’s a ‘partisan voice for Donald Trump.’
Although Iowa has been reliably red in recent Presidential elections, Democrats took a majority of the vote in the state’s House elections in the first Trump midterm. Democrats have already been massively over performing in special elections in the state this year, and this will be Ernst’s first time on the ballot in a cycle where the political waters are likely to be choppy for her party in the state. Ernst’s personal weakness and a strong political climate for Democrats create a strong potential for this to be a top tier race in 2026.
PPP interviewed 568 Iowa voters on June 2nd and 3rd on behalf of Senate Majority PAC. 66% of surveys were conducted by text and 34% were conducted by phone. The margin of error is +/-4.1%. Full results here
