Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds no meaningful difference in electability between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. Cornyn trails James Talarico 44-43 and Paxton trails Talarico 47-45.

While Talarico is seen favorably by Texans (a +6 favorability at 41/35) Paxton and Cornyn are unpopular. Cornyn is more unpopular though. His net favorability is -28 (25/53) while Paxton’s is -24 (30/54).

Cornyn has a problem with the kind of lower propensity Trump voters who fueled the President’s huge win in Texas in 2024. 25% of Trump voters decline to vote for Cornyn in the general election, while only 19% of Trump voters decline to vote for Paxton in the general election.

Paxton has a 55/25 favorability rating with Trump voters in the general electorate, while Cornyn’s is 38/39. This suggests that anti Trump Republicans were critical to Cornyn’s first place finish in the primary on Tuesday.

These numbers suggest a close race regardless of who the GOP nominates. The Texas Senate race will be highly competitive; driven by Talarico’s broad approval, and Cornyn and Paxton’s general election liabilities.

PPP surveyed 576 Texas voters on March 4th and 5th with a margin of error of +/-4.1%. PPP’s poll of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas called James Talarico’s 6-point victory exactly correct. This survey was conducted on behalf of Senate Majority PAC.

Full results here