The DSCC recently released a poll that we did for them in Alaska that found Mary Peltola leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan 49-47 for the Senate.

The 49-47 is what matters there more than the 2 point margin. PPP has done a lot of polls over the years in red states that found a strong Democratic candidate up 41-39 or something like that but when you dug into the numbers it would turn out 2/3rds of that large bloc of undecideds were Republican leaning and most likely when they moved off the fence the GOP candidate was going to win in the end.

That’s not the case here. With both candidates having near total name recognition, Peltola is already close to the 50% threshold she needs to win. There basically are no undecideds.

It’s not going to be easy but we are seeing more and more of a path to a Democratic Senate. We find leads in North Carolina, Maine, and Alaska, very tight races in Texas and Iowa, and things a lot closer than they should be in places like South Carolina and Kansas.

We haven’t polled Ohio yet this cycle but Sherrod Brown’s long record as a strong candidate certainly makes that a good possibility too. And other races are likely to end up on the map too based on the relative strengths of the candidates.

So there’s not just a path to a Democratic Senate, there are multiple paths. It may require winning a few races where the chances are 25% but if you’re competing everywhere that becomes more likely. It certainly looks like a much better possibility than it did a year ago.