Independents tend to decide elections and PPP’s latest national poll finds Donald Trump and Republicans are in a lot of trouble with them.

Just 29% approve of the job Trump is doing to 63% who disapprove of him. Only 64% of the independents who voted for Trump are still happy with the job he’s doing and that’s brought his overall approval with people who voted for him in 2024 down to 80%. This is the weakest we’ve seen him with his base.

Trump’s fall with independent voters is having an impact on the outlook for this fall at the ballot box too. Usually independents are pretty closely divided, with just a small lean in one direction or another. Not this time- Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 51-30 with them.

Thanks to those independent voters, Democrats have a 48-41 generic ballot lead. And there are signs within the numbers that things could get worse for Republicans- among the folks who are undecided only 22% approve of the job Trump is doing to 56% who disapprove.

Generally things break against the party in power in midterms and Trump’s standing with the voters still on the fence speak to a likelihood that will happen again.

After big wins in November the Democratic position seems if anything strengthened one month into 2026.

Full results here