One clear lesson from Tuesday is that Democrats are probably favored next year in the bulk of districts that voted for Donald Trump by 5 points or less last year and we have new numbers in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District that back that up.

The district narrowly went for Trump but he’s deeply unpopular now (42/55 approval) and Democrats Matt Maasdam and Bridget Brink have 4 point leads over Republican incumbent Tom Barrett. Tuesday’s Virginia legislative races showed we can expect to win in districts with that political profile next year.

But PPP polling over the course of the year has also shown that we have a decent chance in lots of places that voted for Trump by 6-10 points as well. We’ve already conducted surveys finding Democratic House candidates up in places like IA-1 (Trump +9), PA-8 (Trump +8), and WI-3 (Trump +7).

In wave years we always pick off a few double digit Republican seats too. And it sure looks like a wave year. Democrats should be swinging for the fences in Congressional, legislative, and statewide races alike!

We give our clients good information. Over the summer PPP was the only pollster to show Zohran Mamdani finishing first in the New York City primary. And this fall we did it again on the other side of the river!

In the Jersey City Mayoral race one of the candidates was the state’s former Governor Jim McGreevey. He was perceived to be an overwhelming favorite based on his name recognition and fundraising and prediction markets gave him over a 70% chance of winning.

Two weeks ago before the election we found that our client James Solomon- a younger, more progressive candidate- was leading McGreevey. Just like in New York City our poll was largely dismissed. And just like New York City we were right- Solomon led McGreevey 29-25 in Tuesday’s votes and is the front runner heading into a runoff next month.

PPP has shown the ability to see things coming that are unexpected. We’d love to work with you in 2026.