Public Policy Polling

Clinton and Paul are neck and neck in Kentucky

Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton is standing her ground in a historically red state with a favorability rating of 45% and an equal likelihood of voters choosing her over Rand Paul.

When asked whether they would vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Rand Paul, 45% of voters chose Clinton and 45% of voters chose Rand Paul. 10% of voters were unsure. Hillary Clinton does even better against Marco Rubio with a 6 point lead (46-40).

“Hillary Clinton’s competitiveness in Kentucky shows what a formidable Presidential candidate she would be in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Democrats haven’t been able to make it a race in Kentucky since her husband was on the ticket almost 20 years ago.”

Kentucky Miscellany

-PPP's newest Kentucky poll continues to find that Hillary Clinton would have the potential to make the state competitive in 2016, something no Democrat's been able to do since her husband was on the ballot. Clinton has a positive favorability rating at 45/43 in the state, an impressive feat for any national Democrat. She musters a tie with home state Senator Rand Paul at 45, and leads early Republican front runner Marco Rubio by a 46/40 margin.

Kentuckians are cool toward a potential Paul Presidential bid. 30% want him to run in 2016, while 50% think he should not. He would be the top choice of Republicans in the state though- 31% say he would be their preferred candidate to 17% for Rubio, 13% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Chris Christie, 4% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Paul Ryan, 2% each for Rick Perry and Rick Santorum, and 1% for Susana Martinez.

-Kentucky voters are evenly divided on the passage of stricter gun laws. 46% are supportive of them and 46% are opposed. Those kinds of numbers in a very conservative state like Kentucky reinforce national numbers showing pretty strong support for more stringent gun control.

-Support for gay marriage is on the rise nationally but it's going to be a long time before Kentucky voters get behind it. Only 27% of voters in the state think it should be legal, compared to 65% who think it should be illegal. Even among Democrats there's still 37/54 opposition. 52% of Kentuckians do though support at least civil unions for same sex couples compared to only 44% who believe those relationships should receive no legal recognition at all. That divide- opposition to marriage, support for civil unions- is what we find throughout most of the south.

Democrats within striking distance of Mitch McConnell for 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – Next year’s Kentucky Senate race is shaping up to be extremely competitive, even without Ashley Judd in the mix. PPP’s latest poll finds Senator Mitch McConnell leading three possible Democratic challengers by 4 to 11 points.

In hypothetical 2014 match-ups, McConnell leads Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4 points (45/41), Ben Chandler by 5 points (46/41) and Ed Marksberry by 11 points (46/35). Grimes and Chandler are both within the poll’s margin of error. The biggest challenge for these candidates is consolidating the support of registered Democrats—24% of Democrats expressed support for McConnell in each of these contests.

McConnell continues to have an abysmal job approval rating with 54% disapproving and just 36% approving of his performance. These numbers are essentially unchanged compared to his 37/55 standing in PPP’s December poll of Kentucky.

McConnell remains extremely unpopular

PPP's newest poll of the Kentucky Senate race finds that Mitch McConnell continues to rank as the most unpopular Senator in the country, and that several Democrats are within striking distance of him in head to head match ups.

36% of voters approve of the job McConnell is doing to 54% who disapprove. That -18 net approval is the same as we found in December when he was at 37/55. McConnell gets tepid approval from Republicans (53/34) while meeting with disapproval from most Democrats (23/69) and independents (32/54).

It's just as well for Democrats that Ashley Judd decided not to challenge McConnell. Her popularity declined quite a bit over the last 4 months. In December a plurality of voters had a positive opinion of her at 42/36, but now her favorability numbers are under water at 34/41. The attacks on her clearly took a toll on her image.

The good news for Democrats is that they still have several candidates who poll within striking range of McConnell. Alison Lundergan Grimes, despite having only 50% name recognition, comes within 4 points of McConnell at 45/41. She's gained a little bit of ground on him since our December poll that found him with a 47/40 advantage. And former Congressman Ben Chandler trails McConnell just 46/41. Ed Marksberry, the only announced Democratic candidate in the race at this point, trails the incumbent 46/35.

Kentucky: Hillary Clinton would beat Paul, Rubio in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – If Hillary Clinton was the Democratic candidate for President in 2016, she could win Kentucky. Against one of its home state Senators, Rand Paul. Despite the fact that the Republican nominee has won the state by at least 15 points in each of the last four Presidential elections. That, maybe more than any other data point that's come out in the last month, shows what a formidable candidate she would be and how important it is for Democrats that she run.

Clinton has a 48/42 favorability rating with Kentucky voters. By comparison Barack Obama's approval rating is 38/59. Clinton would lead Rand Paul 47-42 and Marco Rubio 48-40 in hypothetical match ups. That's because Clinton gets 73-74% of the Democratic vote in those match ups, similar to the 72-73% of the Republican vote that Paul and Rubio get. The reason Democrats lose time after time in Kentucky despite having a large registration advantage is that a very large number of Democrats don't vote Democratic for President, but Clinton would win over a lot of the party faithful who have declined to support Obama, Kerry, and Gore.

Kentucky Miscellany

If Hillary Clinton was the Democratic candidate for President in 2016, she could win Kentucky. Against one of its home state Senators, Rand Paul. Despite the fact that the Republican nominee has won the state by at least 15 points in each of the last four Presidential elections. That, maybe more than any other data point that's come out in the last month, shows what a formidable candidate she would be and how important it is for Democrats that she run.

Clinton has a 48/42 favorability rating with Kentucky voters. By comparison Barack Obama's approval rating is 38/59. Clinton would lead Rand Paul 47-42 and Marco Rubio 48-40 in hypothetical match ups. That's because Clinton gets 73-74% of the Democratic vote in those match ups, similar to the 72-73% of the Republican vote that Paul and Rubio get. The reason Democrats lose time after time in Kentucky despite having a large registration advantage is that a very large number of Democrats don't vote Democratic for President, but Clinton would win over a lot of the party faithful who have declined to support Obama, Kerry, and Gore.

Paul's 43/39 approval makes him more popular than his senior colleague Mitch McConnell. Steve Beshear is the most popular of the state's politicians with a 51/34 approval rating. Despite Beshear's popularity voters in the state say they would generally prefer a Republican than a Democrat to be their next Governor, 42/39.

A hypothetical 2016 match up between Beshear and Paul would have Beshear ahead by a 46/44 margin. Paul would lead a hypothetical match up with Ashley Judd just 47/46, a little better than her 4 point deficit against McConnell on yesterday's poll. Taking a longer term view to the Judd for Senate craze, her prospects for election might be better in 2016 with Clinton on the ticket than they would be in 2014.

Other notes from Kentucky:

-Kentucky fans out number Louisville ones by a 66/17 margin. This is one of the most lopsided rivalries we've ever polled on. John Calipari has a 49/15 favorability rating, a good deal better than Rick Pitino's 44/32. Louisville fans support their school's move to the ACC by a 70/7 margin.

-The Bengals win big as Kentucky's favorite NFL team with 25% to 11% for the Cowboys and Packers, 9% for the Colts, 8% for the Bears, 7% for the Steelers, 5% for the Titans, and less than 1% for the Rams.

-And in very important news, Kentucky voters prefer Jim Beam over Jack Daniels 20-18.

Full results here

McConnell very unpopular, but leads potential foes

Raleigh, N.C. – Mitch McConnell is the most unpopular Senator in the country. Only 37% of Kentucky voters approve of him to 55% disapprove. Both in terms of raw disapproval (55%) and net approval (-18) McConnell has the worst numbers of any of his peers, taking that mantle from Nebraska's Ben Nelson. McConnell is predictably very unpopular with Democrats (23/73). But his numbers are almost as bad with independents (33/58) and even with Republicans he's well below the 70-80% approval range you would usually expect for a Senator within their own party (59/28).

As unpopular as McConnell is, Kentucky is still a state that voted for Mitt Romney by 23 points last month and because of the political lean of the state, he leads all of the Democrats we tested against him in head to head match ups. 3 of them- Lieutenant Governor Jerry Abramson, Attorney General and 2010 nominee Jack Conway, and actress Ashley Judd- come within 4 points of McConnell at 47/43. Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer trails by 5 at 46/41, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes has a 7 point deficit at 47/40, Congressman John Yarmuth is down 10 at 48/38, former Ambassador Matthew Barzun lags 48/37, and State Auditor Adam Edelen trails by 12 at 48/36.

McConnell highly unpopular

Mitch McConnell is the most unpopular Senator in the country. Only 37% of Kentucky voters approve of him to 55% disapprove. Both in terms of raw disapproval (55%) and net approval (-18) McConnell has the worst numbers of any of his peers, taking that mantle from Nebraska's Ben Nelson.

McConnell is predictably very unpopular with Democrats (23/73). But his numbers are almost as bad with independents (33/58) and even with Republicans he's well below the 70-80% approval range you would usually expect for a Senator within their own party (59/28).

As unpopular as McConnell is, Kentucky is still a state that voted for Mitt Romney by 23 points last month and because of the political lean of the state, he leads all of the Democrats we tested against him in head to head match ups. 3 of them- Lieutenant Governor Jerry Abramson, Attorney General and 2010 nominee Jack Conway, and actress Ashley Judd- come within 4 points of McConnell at 47/43. Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer trails by 5 at 46/41, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes has a 7 point deficit at 47/40, Congressman John Yarmuth is down 10 at 48/38, former Ambassador Matthew Barzun lags 48/37, and State Auditor Adam Edelen trails by 12 at 48/36.

The reason McConnell does decently well in the head to head match ups despite his poor approval numbers is that even though a lot of Republicans dislike him, most of them would still vote for him in a general election before they would support a Democrat. This is the same phenomenon we saw in Florida and Pennsylvania this year where Bill Nelson and Bob Casey won by solid margins despite middling approval numbers because Democrats that weren't thrilled with them still voted for them. And although independents don't like McConnell they don't like most of the Democrats either, and they support McConnell in every match up we tested.

Ashley Judd is the clear choice of Democratic primary voters to be their candidate in 2014. 29% say she would be the first pick, followed by Abramson at 16%, Conway at 15%, Grimes and Yarmuth at 9%, Fischer at 5%, Edelen at 2%, and Barzun at less than 1%. Judd is a particularly popular choice among young voters and those describing themselves as 'very liberal.'

The primary action in 2014 might not all be on the Democratic side. Among Republican primary voters only 50% say they want McConnell to be their nominee against next time, while 35% would prefer a generic 'more conservative' candidate.

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17