Raleigh, N.C. –
Hillary Clinton is standing her ground in a historically red state with a
favorability rating of 45% and an equal likelihood of voters choosing her over
Rand Paul.
When asked whether they would vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton or
Republican Rand Paul, 45% of voters chose Clinton and 45% of voters chose Rand
Paul. 10% of voters were unsure. Hillary Clinton does even better against Marco
Rubio with a 6 point lead (46-40).
“Hillary Clinton’s competitiveness in Kentucky shows what a formidable
Presidential candidate she would be in 2016,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “Democrats haven’t been able to make it a race in
Kentucky since her husband was on the ticket almost 20 years ago.”
While voters are split between Paul and Clinton, 50% of them think Rand Paul
should not run for President in 2016. Of the Kentuckians who typically vote in
Republican primaries, they would still rather see Paul run (31% would choose
him out of other GOP candidates) than any other potential Republican candidates
such as Marco Rubio (17%), Jeb Bush (13%), and Chris Christie (10%).
Turning inward, when asked if they prefer the next Governor of Kentucky to
be a Democrat or a Republican, voters are split (40-40) with 20% unsure.
Kentucky voters are also evenly split on whether they support or oppose
Congress passing stricter gun laws (46-46).
Kentucky voters are less divided on the issue of same sex marriage with 27%
of the people surveyed thinking same-sex marriage should be allowed and 65% of
voters thinking same-sex marriage should not be allowed.
PPP surveyed 1,052 Kentucky voters as well as 320
usual Republican primary voters from April 5th to 7th.
The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.0% and +/-5.5% for the GOP
portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Results
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 45%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Would you prefer for the next Governor of
Kentucky to be a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q6 Do you think Rand Paul should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should run …………………………………………. 30%
He should not………………………………………….. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Would you support or oppose Congress
passing stricter gun laws?
Support ………………………………………………….. 46%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
It should be allowed …………………………………. 27%
It should not ……………………………………………. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..23%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………29%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q10 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, New
York Yankees, or St. Louis Cardinals, or do you
not root for any of these teams?
Braves …………………………………………………… 7%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 4%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 7%
Reds ……………………………………………………… 38%
Indians …………………………………………………… 1%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 4%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 9%
Don’t root for any of these teams……………….. 30%
Q11 Do you consider yourself to be a Southerner, or
not?
Consider yourself a Southerner …………………. 72%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Louisville?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the city of Lexington?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q17 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez, Rand Paul,
Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 13%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 10%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 1%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 31%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 2%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 17%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 3%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 16%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 8%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
