Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Kentucky poll finds that Mitch McConnell is the least popular Senator in the country and as a result Alison Lundergan Grimes is remaining very competitive with him, even as Democrats have struggled nationally over the last couple months.
Only 31% of voters approve of the job McConnell is doing to 61% who disapprove. He’s only on narrowly positive ground with Republicans at 47/41, and he meets with nearly universal disapproval from independents (22/66) and Democrats (19/75). Attack ads in recent months have taken their toll on Grimes’ image too- where in May she had a 34/24 favorability rating, now she’s dropped a net 16 points to 31/37.
McConnell leads Grimes just 43/42 head to head. McConnell’s 43% standing is the same as where we found him in October, while Grimes has seen a slight decline in her support from its previous 45% mark. As unpopular as McConnell is, it’s helping his cause that Barack Obama is just as bad off with a 31% approval rating to 64% of voters disapproving of him.
If Matt Bevin was somehow able to snag the Republican nomination from McConnell he would lead Grimes by the same one point margin, at 39/38. Bevin will have to come from behind in the primary though. Right now McConnell has a 53/26 advantage over him. McConnell is theoretically vulnerable. Primary voters say by a 42/39 margin that they’d like ‘someone more conservative’ to be the GOP nominee next year.
Whether Bevin can position himself as an alternative to McConnell remains to be seen. He remains mostly unknown to GOP voters in the state- 61% don’t have an opinion about him one way or the other. And the voters who do have an opinion about him don’t particularly like him- just 14% see him favorably to 25% with a negative opinion.
“Kentucky voters continue to hate Mitch McConnell,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The question remains whether they hate him enough to vote for a Democrat next year when the President’s approval rating in the state is only 31%.”
PPP surveyed 1,509 Kentucky voters, including 540 Republican primary voters, from December 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.5% and for the Republican primary part it’s +/-4.2%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Bevin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alison Lundergan Grimes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Alison Lundergan Grimes, who would you vote
for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 43%
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Matt Bevin and Democrat Alison
Lundergan Grimes, who would you vote for?
Matt Bevin………………………………………………. 39%
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q7 Do you think Rand Paul supports Mitch
McConnell for re-election to the US Senate, or
not?
Think he does …………………………………………. 30%
Think he does not ……………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q8 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q9 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Bevin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q3 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Mitch McConnell and Matt Bevin,
who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 53%
Matt Bevin………………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q4 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican nominee for Senate in 2014 to be
Mitch McConnell or somebody more
conservative than him?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 39%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q5 Which of Kentucky’s Senators do you have a
higher opinion of: Mitch McConnell or Rand
Paul?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 27%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 36%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
