Raleigh, N.C. – Mitch McConnell is the most unpopular Senator in the country. Only 37% of Kentucky voters approve of him to 55% disapprove. Both in terms of raw disapproval (55%) and net approval (-18) McConnell has the worst numbers of any of his peers, taking that mantle from Nebraska’s Ben Nelson. McConnell is predictably very unpopular with Democrats (23/73). But his numbers are almost as bad with independents (33/58) and even with Republicans he’s well below the 70-80% approval range you would usually expect for a Senator within their own party (59/28).
As unpopular as McConnell is, Kentucky is still a state that voted for Mitt Romney by 23 points last month and because of the political lean of the state, he leads all of the Democrats we tested against him in head to head match ups. 3 of them- Lieutenant Governor Jerry Abramson, Attorney General and 2010 nominee Jack Conway, and actress Ashley Judd- come within 4 points of McConnell at 47/43. Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer trails by 5 at 46/41, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes has a 7 point deficit at 47/40, Congressman John Yarmuth is down 10 at 48/38, former Ambassador Matthew Barzun lags 48/37, and State Auditor Adam Edelen trails by 12 at 48/36.
The reason McConnell does decently well in the head to head match ups despite his poor approval numbers is that even though a lot of Republicans dislike him, most of them would still vote for him in a general election before they would support a Democrat.
Ashley Judd is the clear choice of Democratic primary voters to be their candidate in 2014. 29% say she would be the first pick, followed by Abramson at 16%, Conway at 15%, Grimes and Yarmuth at 9%, Fischer at 5%, Edelen at 2%, and Barzun at less than 1%.
“Kentucky is a tough state for Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But given how unpopular McConnell is and how few opportunities there are for them to play offense in 2014, this should be one of the most hotly contested races in the country.”
PPP surveyed 1,266 Kentucky voters, including 585 Democratic primary voters and 395 Republican primary voters, from December 7th to 9th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-2.8%, for the Democrats it’s +/-4.1%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jerry Abramson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matthew Barzun?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Conway?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adam Edelen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Fischer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alison Lundergan Grimes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 56%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ashley Judd?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Yarmuth?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Jerry Abramson, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 47%
Jerry Abramson……………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Matthew Barzun, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 48%
Matthew Barzun………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Jack Conway, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 47%
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Adam Edelen, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 48%
Adam Edelen ………………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Greg Fischer, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 46%
Greg Fischer …………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Alison Lundergan Grimes, who would you vote
for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 47%
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Ashley Judd, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 47%
Ashley Judd ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
John Yarmuth, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 48%
John Yarmuth………………………………………….. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q18 (Asked only of 585 Democratic Primary voters)
Given the choices of Jerry Abramson, Matthew
Barzun, Jack Conway, Adam Edelen, Greg
Fischer, Alison Lundergan Grimes, Ashley
Judd, and John Yarmuth, who would you most
like to see as the Democratic candidate for
Senate in 2014?
Jerry Abramson……………………………………….. 16%
Matthew Barzun………………………………………. 0%
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 15%
Adam Edelen ………………………………………….. 2%
Greg Fischer …………………………………………… 5%
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 9%
Ashley Judd ……………………………………………. 29%
John Yarmuth………………………………………….. 9%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 15%
Q19 (Asked only of 395 Republican Primary voters)
If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Mitch McConnell and Thomas
Massie, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 66%
Thomas Massie ………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q20 (Asked only of 395 Republican Primary voters)
Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican nominee for Senate in 2014 to be
Mitch McConnell or somebody more
conservative than him?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 50%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q22 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q23 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%
Q24 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q25 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
