Raleigh, N.C. – Though Kentucky’s primary will probably not play a crucial role in deciding the Republicans’ presidential nominee next year, Rick Perry’s more-than-twenty-point lead over Mitt Romney is an indication of the appeal he holds to conservatives in states beyond Iowa and South Carolina, where PPP has already shown him in the lead, by double digits in the latter.
If the revived speculation about a Sarah Palin candidacy does result in a campaign, Perry would lead with 34% to Romney’s 14%, Palin’s 12%, Ron Paul’s 8%, Newt Gingrich’s 7%, Michele Bachmann’s 6%, Herman Cain’s and Jon Huntsman’s 3%, and Rick Santorum’s 2%.
Paul, whose son Rand is the state’s new senator, jumps to third at 11% if the field remains at its current makeup. After Perry, who moves up to 39%, with Romney at 15%, Bachmann gains the most from Palin’s absence, inching from 6% to 10%, followed by Gingrich’s 8%, and the others still in the low single digits.
Perry gets literally half of the “very conservative” vote, with Paul at 13%, Bachmann at 11%, and Romney tied for fourth with Gingrich at 7%. These voters make up 39% of the electorate, outnumbered only by their brethren who say they are ideologically slightly more to the center. The 42% “somewhat conservative” plurality still favor Perry by an almost 2:1 margin, 40-21 over Romney, with everyone else in single digits. Only among self-described moderates, a mere 14% of voters, can Romney claim an edge, with 24% to Bachmann’s 16%, Paul’s 15%, Perry’s 14%, and Gingrich’s 12%.
“PPP has polled 4 southern states in the last 2 weeks- South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Kentucky- and Rick Perry has a double digit lead in all of them,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s proving to be an extremely formidable candidate in his home region.”
PPP surveyed 326 usual Kentucky Republican primary voters from August 25th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 66%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 6%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 12%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 34%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 10%
Q7 What if Sarah Palin didn’t run for President,
and the candidates were just Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
