Raleigh, N.C. – If Hillary Clinton was the Democratic candidate for President in
2016, she could win Kentucky. Against one of its home state Senators,
Rand Paul. Despite the fact that the Republican nominee has won the
state by at least 15 points in each of the last four Presidential
elections. That, maybe more than any other data point that’s come out in
the last month, shows what a formidable candidate she would be and how
important it is for Democrats that she run.
Clinton has a 48/42 favorability rating with Kentucky voters. By
comparison Barack Obama’s approval rating is 38/59. Clinton would lead
Rand Paul 47-42 and Marco Rubio 48-40 in hypothetical match ups. That’s
because Clinton gets 73-74% of the Democratic vote in those match ups,
similar to the 72-73% of the Republican vote that Paul and Rubio get.
The reason Democrats lose time after time in Kentucky despite having a
large registration advantage is that a very large number of Democrats
don’t vote Democratic for President, but Clinton would win over a lot of
the party faithful who have declined to support Obama, Kerry, and Gore.
Paul’s 43/39 approval makes him more popular than his senior
colleague Mitch McConnell. Steve Beshear is the most popular of the
state’s politicians with a 51/34 approval rating. Despite Beshear’s
popularity voters in the state say they would generally prefer a
Republican than a Democrat to be their next Governor, 42/39.
A hypothetical 2016 match up between Beshear and Paul would have
Beshear ahead by a 46/44 margin. Paul would lead a hypothetical match up
with Ashley Judd just 47/46, a little better than her 4 point deficit
against McConnell on yesterday’s poll. Taking a longer term view to the
Judd for Senate craze, her prospects for election might be better in
2016 with Clinton on the ticket than they would be in 2014.
Kentucky fans out number Louisville ones by a 66/17 margin. This is
one of the most lopsided rivalries we’ve ever polled on. John Calipari
has a 49/15 favorability rating, a good deal better than Rick Pitino’s
44/32. Louisville fans support their school’s move to the ACC by a 70/7
margin.
The Bengals win big as Kentucky’s favorite NFL team with 25% to 11%
for the Cowboys and Packers, 9% for the Colts, 8% for the Bears, 7% for
the Steelers, 5% for the Titans, and less than 1% for the Rams.
And in very important news, Kentucky voters prefer Jim Beam over Jack Daniels 20-18.
PPP surveyed 1266 registered
Kentucky voters from December 7th to 9th. The margin of
error for the poll is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand
Paul’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican
Rand Paul, who would you vote for?
Steve Beshear ………………………………………… 46%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Ashley Judd and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Ashley Judd …………………………………………… 46%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hillary Clinton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 47%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 48%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Would you prefer for the next Governor of
Kentucky to be a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 39%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Calipari?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Pitino?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q13 Do you consider yourself to be more a
Kentucky or Louisville sports fan?
Kentucky………………………………………………… 66%
Louisville ……………………………………………….. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q14 Do you support or oppose Louisville’s move
from the Big East to the ACC?
Support ………………………………………………….. 36%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 53%
Q15 Given the choices of the Chicago Bears,
Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Green
Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh
Steelers, St. Louis Rams, and Tennessee
Titans, which is your favorite NFL team?
Bears …………………………………………………….. 8%
Bengals………………………………………………….. 25%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 11%
Packers………………………………………………….. 11%
Colts ……………………………………………………… 9%
Steelers………………………………………………….. 7%
Rams …………………………………………………….. 0%
Titans…………………………………………………….. 5%
Someone else/Not a football fan………………… 24%
Q16 Do you prefer Jim Beam or Jack Daniels?
Jim Beam……………………………………………….. 20%
Jack Daniels …………………………………………… 18%
Don’t have a preference……………………………. 61%
Q17 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%
Q20 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 91%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%