Raleigh, N.C. – The latest PPP poll has Republican incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell leading Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell leads Grimes and Libertarian David Patterson by a margin of 44/40/7 with 9% undecided. Both major party candidates in this race face negative ratings; McConnell’s approval rating is only 37% while 54% disapprove of his job performance. Grimes faces a net four point negative rating at 45% disapproval and 41% approval.
Among Democrats, 22% approve of his job performance and 23% say that they would vote for McConnell. The bright spot for Grimes in addition to the fact that the race is so close is that she leads among women in the state. Grimes has a net favorable rating among women at 44/40 and leads among women by one point 42/41. In addition, 11% of women remain undecided, representing a path forward for Grimes to overtake McConnell.
“Mitch McConnell’s starting to see Republican voters unify around him a little bit more,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s allowed him to regain a small lead although the race remains very competitive overall.”
In the 2015 race for Governor Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway leads each of his likely Republican challengers; Cathy Bailey, Matt Bevin, James Comer and Hal Heiner. Conway leads Bevin and Comer each by three points; 39/36 and 38/35 respectively. Conway leads Bailey and Heiner by wider margins; he leads Bailey 42/30 and Heiner 39/32.
The President and his namesake healthcare law are still unpopular in Kentucky. When asked if they approve of the President’s job performance 32% of voters say they approve but 63% of voters say they disapprove. The Affordable Care Act is less unpopular, across the state 34% of voters approve of the healthcare law while 51% disapprove. However the state operated healthcare marketplace, Kynect, has a net positive favorability rating, 34/27.
PPP surveyed 991 likely voters from August 7th to August 10th. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.1 %. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alison Lundergan Grimes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 If the candidates for Senate were Republican
Mitch McConnell, Democrat Alison Lundergan
Grimes, and Libertarian David Patterson, who
would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 44%
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 40%
David Patterson ………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Horse race, with Patterson supporters asked if
they would vote McConnell or Grimes
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 47%
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cathy Bailey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 87%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Bevin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 58%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of James Comer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 71%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Conway?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 37%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hal Heiner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 69%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Cathy
Bailey, who would you vote for?
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 42%
Cathy Bailey……………………………………………. 30%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 28%
Q12 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Matt
Bevin, who would you vote for?
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 39%
Matt Bevin………………………………………………. 36%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 25%
Q13 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jack Conway and Republican
James Comer, who would you vote for?
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 38%
James Comer …………………………………………. 35%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 27%
Q14 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Hal
Heiner, who would you vote for?
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 39%
Hal Heiner………………………………………………. 32%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 28%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q16 Do you approve or disapprove of Kynect?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q17 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act so far has been very
successful, somewhat successful, somewhat
unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you
not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 15%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 26%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 20%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q18 Do you think the implementation of Kynect so
far has been very successful, somewhat
successful, somewhat unsuccessful, very
unsuccessful, or are you not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 21%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 24%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 16%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q19 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 8%
Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 10%
Q23 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 88%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q24 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q25 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Cathy Bailey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 85%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Matt Bevin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 50%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of James Comer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 69%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Hal Heiner?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 67%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were Cathy Bailey, Matt Bevin, James
Comer, and Hal Heiner, who would you vote
for?
Cathy Bailey……………………………………………. 11%
Matt Bevin………………………………………………. 25%
James Comer …………………………………………. 20%
Hal Heiner………………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for Governor next
year were just James Comer and Hal Heiner,
who would you vote for?
James Comer …………………………………………. 22%
Hal Heiner………………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
