Polls

Rand Paul continues to be popular in home state of Kentucky

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
The latest PPP poll shows that Republican Senator Rand Paul is still popular in his home state. Paul has an approval rating of 47% and a disapproval rating of 39%. In a potential reelection fight against current Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, Paul leads 50/41, a strong number considering that Beshear is also popular with a 48/34 approval/disapproval rating. When asked which of the state’s Senators they prefer 44% of residents chose Paul as opposed to only 26% who prefer Mitch McConnell. Among Republicans Paul is more popular by a 56/31 margin.

Paul has additional support in a potential Presidential bid; he leads in a potential matchup with Hilary Clinton 49/43, 25% of Republicans in the state support his candidacy against the rest of a wider primary field. However, only 34% of state residents want Paul to run for President in 2016 and fewer than half, 48%, of Republicans in the state believe that Paul should run for President.

The poll contained some positive results for Democrats. If Beshear were to run for Senate in 2016 against Republican Thomas Massie he would lead 45/30 with 24% undecided. In potential matchups against Republican opposition Clinton gets mixed results. Between Clinton and Jeb Bush, Bush wins 48/43 but against Chris Christie Clinton wins 44/41, and Clinton beats Ted Cruz 46/41. Mike Huckabee beats Clinton 47/44 and Rand Paul wins 49/43 in his home state.

“Rand Paul would start in a good position for reelection even against his most formidable potential opponent,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Kentucky could have another top tier Senate race in an open seat situation though.”

The poll also shows the state’s conservative trends, 61% of voters think same sex marriage should not be allowed. When asked about broader opinions on gay marriage, 28% are in favor of marriage and another 28% of voters support civil unions, but 41% of voters think there should be no legal recognition of a gay couples’ relationship.

PPP surveyed 991 Kentucky voters, including 383 Republican primary voters, from August 7th to August 10th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.1% and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.0%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand
Paul’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Thomas Massie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 12%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 76%

Q4 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican
Rand Paul, who would you vote for?
Steve Beshear ………………………………………… 41%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q5 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican
Thomas Massie, who would you vote for?
Steve Beshear ………………………………………… 45%
Thomas Massie ………………………………………. 30%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 24%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 46%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q11 Which of Kentucky’s Senators do you have a
higher opinion of: Mitch McConnell or Rand
Paul?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 26%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%

Q12 Do you think Rand Paul should run for
President in 2016, or not?
Think he should ………………………………………. 34%
Think he should not …………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q13 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 58%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q14 Do you support or oppose requiring existing
power plants to cut carbon pollution by up to
30%?
Support ………………………………………………….. 44%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q15 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed, or not?
Think it should be allowed…………………………. 30%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q16 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..28%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………28%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%

Q17 In general, do you consider yourself to be more
a Kentucky or Louisville sports fan?
Kentucky………………………………………………… 64%
Louisville………………………………………………… 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q18 (Q18-19asked only of UK fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of the job Mark Stoops
is doing as football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q19 Do you approve or disapprove of the job John
Calipari is doing as basketball coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 86%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q20 (Q20-22 asked only of Louisville fans) Do you
approve or disapprove of the decision to hire
Bobby Petrino as football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Strong?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q22 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rick
Pitino is doing as basketball coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 89%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q23 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, New
York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, or St. Louis
Cardinals?
Braves …………………………………………………… 7%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 5%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 7%
Reds ……………………………………………………… 40%
Indians …………………………………………………… 1%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 5%
Pirates …………………………………………………… 1%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 10%
Some other team / No favorite…………………… 24%

Q24 Do you think the Democratic Party is waging a
war on white people, or not?
Think they are…………………………………………. 27%
Think they are not ……………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q25 Do you think that undocumented immigrants
are bringing Ebola into the United States from
Mexico, or not?
Think they are…………………………………………. 19%
Think they are not ……………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q26 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 52%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 8%

Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%

Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 10%

Q30 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 88%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q31 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Q32 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand
Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott
Walker, who would you most like to see as the
GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 15%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 8%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 7%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 18%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 3%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 25%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 8%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 4%
Scott Walker …………………………………………… 5%
Someone else / Not sure ………………………….. 6%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 38%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%

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