Raleigh, N.C. – Only 35% of Kentucky voters think Rand Paul should run for President, compared to 49% who think he should sit it out. But he’d still be a favorite in both the primary and general elections in the state.

34% of GOP primary voters say he’d be their top choice to 20% for Jeb Bush, 12% Chris Christie, 7% Ted Cruz, 5% each for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 3% for Bobby Jindal, and 2% each for Rick Santorum and Scott Walker.

Paul is also the strongest Republican for the general election in Kentucky, leading Hillary Clinton by 6 points at 49/43. Bush and Christie both lead Clinton by 4 points at 46/42 and 44/40 respectively. Ted Cruz actually trails Clinton 44/41 in the state, a good data point for how weak he is. Clinton does far better than Barack Obama did in all of these match ups, even if winning the state still seems like a long shot.

Paul has a decent 49/40 approval rating but Kentucky’s most popular politician is its Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, who comes in at 51/33. Speaking to the difficulty Democrats have in federal races in Kentucky though, Paul would lead Beshear 49/42 in a hypothetical contest despite Beshear’s greater popularity. In a rematch of their 2010 contest Paul would lead Jack Conway 50/38.

The Affordable Care Act is pretty unpopular in Kentucky, with only 30% of voters approving of it to 56% who disapprove. But the implementation of it in the state does get decently good marks, with 43% rating it successful and 43% unsuccessful. Only 22% of Kentuckians think the implementation of it has been successful in the rest of the country to 69% who believe it’s been a failure.

Kentucky’s been getting more and more Republican in national elections and at least at this early stage we’re starting to see some evidence that could bleed down to the state level as well. Right now voters generically say they want their next Governor to be a Republican by a 44/37 margin. And they also say they’d vote GOP if there was a legislative election today, 44/36.

PPP surveyed 1,509 Kentucky voters, including 540 Republican primary voters, from December 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.5% and for the Republican primary part it’s +/-4.2%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand
Paul’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Conway?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%

Q4 Would you prefer for the next governor of
Kentucky to be a Democrat or a Republican?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 37%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q5 Generally speaking, if there was an election for
the state legislature today, would you vote for
the Democratic or Republican candidate from
your district?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican
Rand Paul, who would you vote for?
Steve Beshear ………………………………………… 42%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack
Conway, who would you vote for?
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 50%
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 42%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 40%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q11 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 43%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable
Care Act?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q13 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act specifically in Kentucky so
far has been very successful, somewhat
successful, somewhat unsuccessful, very
unsuccessful, or are you not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 21%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 22%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 21%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q14 Do you think the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act overall nationally so far
has been very successful, somewhat
successful, somewhat unsuccessful, very
unsuccessful, or are you not sure?
Very successful……………………………………….. 4%
Somewhat successful ………………………………. 18%
Somewhat unsuccessful …………………………… 20%
Very unsuccessful……………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q15 Do you think Rand Paul should run for
President in 2016, or not?
He should run …………………………………………. 35%
He should not………………………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q16 In general, do you consider yourself to be more
a Kentucky or Louisville sports fan?
Kentucky………………………………………………… 63%
Louisville ……………………………………………….. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q17 (Asked only of UK fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of the job Mark Stoops is doing as
football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%

Q18 (Asked only of UK fans:) Do you approve or
disapprove of the job John Calipari is doing as
basketball coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 76%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q19 (Asked only of Louisville fans:) Do you approve
or disapprove of the job Charlie Strong is doing
as football coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 66%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q20 (Asked only of Louisville fans:) Do you approve
or disapprove of the job Rick Pitino is doing as
basketball coach?
Approve …………………………………………………. 88%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 5%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q21 Given the choices of the Chicago Bears,
Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Green
Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh
Steelers, St. Louis Rams, and Tennessee
Titans, which is your favorite NFL team?
Bears …………………………………………………….. 7%
Bengals………………………………………………….. 25%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 11%
Packers………………………………………………….. 8%
Colts ……………………………………………………… 8%
Steelers………………………………………………….. 6%
Rams …………………………………………………….. 1%
Titans…………………………………………………….. 6%
Someone else/Not a football fan………………… 28%

Q22 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q23 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%

Q24 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q25 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 9%

Q26 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q27 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 47%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%