Raleigh, N.C. – Next year’s Kentucky Senate race is shaping up to be extremely competitive, even without Ashley Judd in the mix. PPP’s latest poll finds Senator Mitch McConnell leading three possible Democratic challengers by 4 to 11 points.
In hypothetical 2014 match-ups, McConnell leads Alison Lundergan Grimes by 4 points (45/41), Ben Chandler by 5 points (46/41) and Ed Marksberry by 11 points (46/35). Grimes and Chandler are both within the poll’s margin of error. The biggest challenge for these candidates is consolidating the support of registered Democrats—24% of Democrats expressed support for McConnell in each of these contests.
McConnell continues to have an abysmal job approval rating with 54% disapproving and just 36% approving of his performance. These numbers are essentially unchanged compared to his 37/55 standing in PPP’s December poll of Kentucky.
“Kentucky voted for Romney by 23 points last fall, but Mitch McConnell is almost as unpopular as President Obama in his home state,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “McConnell’s poor standing with Kentucky voters could put his Senate seat within striking distance for a strong Democratic challenger.”
Ashely Judd’s favorability has dropped significantly in recent months, from 42/36 in December to 34/41 in April. Steve Beshear remains very popular as Kentucky’s Democratic governor with 48% approving and 31% disapproving of his job performance. 46% approve of Senator Rand Paul to 39% who disapprove, and he would lead Beshear by 4 points (46/42) in a 2016 Senate race. Paul is Kentucky’s favorite Senator with 42% holding a higher opinion of him compared to 24% for McConnell and 34% not sure.
Despite McConnell’s troubles, he may avoid a Republican primary challenger. 56% of GOP primary voters support McConnell against 18% for Thomas Massie. 46% support McConnell as the 2014 nominee while 32% would support someone more conservative.
PPP surveyed 1,052 Kentucky voters as well as 320 usual Republican primary voters from April 5th to 7th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.0% and +/-5.5% for the GOP portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ben Chandler?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Alison Lundergan Grimes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Marksberry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Ben Chandler, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 46%
Ben Chandler………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat
Alison Lundergan Grimes, who would you vote
for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 45%
Alison Lundergan Grimes …………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat Ed
Marksberry, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 46%
Ed Marksberry ………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand
Paul’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ashley Judd?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q12 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Steve Beshear and Republican
Rand Paul, who would you vote for?
Steve Beshear ………………………………………… 42%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2016 were
Democrat Ashley Judd and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Ashley Judd …………………………………………… 40%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Which of Kentucky’s Senators do you have a
higher opinion of: Mitch McConnell or Rand
Paul?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 24%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%
Q18 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 48%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 If the Republican candidates for Senate in
2014 were Mitch McConnell and Thomas
Massie, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 56%
Thomas Massie ………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q2 Generally speaking, would you like the
Republican nominee for Senate in 2014 to be
Mitch McConnell or somebody more
conservative than him?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 46%
Someone more conservative …………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q3 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 8%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 34%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q4 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q5 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%