Public Policy Polling

Close GOP race in Nebraska

Raleigh, N.C. – We did a short unplanned poll in Nebraska last night because of the sudden shift in the Republican Senate primary that some other surveys had shown. We found a very close race with Deb Fischer at 37%, Jon Bruning at 33%, and Don Stenberg at 17%. With the poll's margin of error at +/-5.9% Fischer's lead is very much within the margin of error and the race could go either way tonight.

Bruning's image has taken a huge hit in the month and a half since our last poll of the race. His favorability rating is a net +13 at 49/36. That's a 27 point decline from late March when he was at +40 (57/17.) Stenberg's seen a large- although not quite as dramatic- drop in his numbers as well from +29 (49/20) to +12 (46/34).

Close race in Nebraska

We did a short unplanned poll in Nebraska last night because of the sudden shift in the Republican Senate primary that some other surveys had shown. We found a very close race with Deb Fischer at 37%, Jon Bruning at 33%, and Don Stenberg at 17%. With the poll's margin of error at +/-5.9% Fischer's lead is very much within the margin of error and the race could go either way tonight.

Bruning's image has taken a huge hit in the month and a half since our last poll of the race. His favorability rating is a net +13 at 49/36. That's a 27 point decline from late March when he was at +40 (57/17.) Stenberg's seen a large- although not quite as dramatic- drop in his numbers as well from +29 (49/20) to +12 (46/34).

Fischer meanwhile has seen an incredible improvement in how voters view her. On our last poll she had only 44% name recognition and Republicans were split on her 22/22. Now she's by far and away the most popular candidate in the race with a +45 favorability rating at 62/17. Although you might look at her superior favorable numbers to Bruning and think she should win easily, it's worth noting that Mitt Romney beat Rick Santorum in a lot of states where Santorum had better favorability numbers. Voters don't necessarily always go for the candidate they like the most.

NE supports awarding Electoral College votes by congressional district

Raleigh, N.C. – Yesterday PPP released numbers showing Barack Obama in position to again take an electoral vote in Nebraska despite losing the state badly by winning one of Nebraska’s three congressional districts. PPP asked voters if they would prefer to keep the current system of awarding their electoral votes by congressional district or switching to a winner-take-all system. By a 51-38 margin,voters said they’d like to keep the current system. Democrats (66-18) and Independents (60-23) support the current system while only Republicans (38-42) want to switch to a winner-take-all model.

With former Senator Bob Kerrey moving back to Nebraska from New York City to run for U.S. Senate, PPP asked Nebraskans if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Big Apple. A plurality of voters (42%) had a favorable view of NYC, compared to 27% who viewed it unfavorably and 32% not sure. Democrats viewed it favorably by a 54-16 margin, indepenendents were almost as favorable at 45-17, but Republicans dislike New York by a slight margin at 32-37.

Nebraska Miscellany

-Dave Heineman is the only sitting Governor in the country with an approval rating in the 60s in PPP's polling. 60% of voters think he's doing a good job to 27% who disapprove. What sets him apart from most of his peers is that even with Democrats he comes close to breaking even with 42% approving and 44% disapproving of him. That's a rare feat in this era of heavy partisan polarization.

-Nebraska might have the most popular Governor in the country, but it also has perhaps the least popular Senator. Ben Nelson has just a 36% approval rating with 53% of voters disapproving of him. That -17 spread is worse than we've found for any other Senator in the last 2 years. Sometimes when an unpopular politician announces their retirement they get a bounce but that's not the case here.

Nelson's junior colleague Mike Johanns on the other hand is one of the more popular Senators with 55% of voters approving of him to 30% who disapprove.

-The most popular person with Nebraska Democrats? It might be Warren Buffett. 85% of Democrats in the state see him favorably to only 7% with an unfavorable opinion. He's at 65/15 with independents and 46/35 with Republicans, giving him an overall rating of 63/22. Not too bad.

-Buffett's numbers are impressive but he still can't claim most popular person in the state honors. That would have to go to Tom Osborne who has a 79/10 favorability rating. 53% of voters support Osborne's decision to replace basketball coach Doc Sadler with 11% opposed and 36% holding no opinion.

Obama down in Nebraska but close in 2nd CD

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama padded his already overwhelming Electoral College victory over John McCain four years ago by taking one of Nebraska’s three congressional districts despite losing statewide by 15 points.  Though the state legislature redrew the districts to try to ensure that would not happen again, there is still a chance it may, per PPP’s latest poll of the state.

Mitt Romney leads Obama by only 12 points statewide (51-39)—less not only than McCain’s margin of victory but equal to Ron Paul’s lead and also less than that of the man he is trying to fend off for the nomination.  Rick Santorum tops Obama by 17 points, 55-38, while Paul matches Romney at 49-37.  Only Newt Gingrich fares worse than Romney, leading the president by nine (49-40).  Obama trails Romney by only one point in the 2^nd Congressional District he snatched from McCain last time; he ties Santorum.

Santorum tops in Nebraska

Rick Santorum is the strongest Presidential candidate in Nebraska- for both the primary and general elections.

Santorum's the top choice of 39% of GOP voters in Nebraska to 25% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul. Santorum is very popular with Republicans in the state, at a 64/22 favorability rating. None of the other contenders can even hit 50% there, with Romney at 46/39, Gingrich at 38/42, and Paul at 30/52.

As has been the case everywhere he's done well, Santorum's strength is based on support from the most conservative groups of the Republican electorate. He's up 53-18 on Romney with 'very conservative' voters, and also has a 48-18 advantage with Tea Party voters. Nebraska also provides another example of Romney's difficulty connecting with Evangelicals. He's actually up 29-28 with non-Evangelical voters but is still getting crushed overall because of his 50-22 deficit with Evangelicals.

Nebraska's another state where Santorum would gain in a big way if Newt Gingrich got out of the race. His lead would expand to 21 points with him getting 51% to 30% for Romney and 10% for Paul.

Santorum's the strongest candidate in the general election in Nebraska as well. He leads Barack Obama by 17 points at 55-38. The other Republicans lead by smaller, but still healthy, margins. Romney and Paul are each up by 12 at 51-39 and 49-37 respectively. Gingrich is the weakest of the GOP hopefuls, leading Obama by 9 points at 49-40.

Kerrey trails by double digits in Nebraska

Raleigh, N.C. – Bob Kerrey has his work cut out for him as he returns to Nebraska to run for U.S. Senate, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Kerrey trails his most likely opponent, State Attorney General Jon Bruning, by 17 points, 54-37. Kerrey also trails two other potential opponents by double digits – he’s losing to State Treasurer Don Stenberg 52-38 and to State Senator Deb Fischer 48-38.

Over half of Nebraska voters view Kerrey unfavorably. 51% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him compared to just 36% who have a favorable one. Kerrey only gets a 66/20 rating among Democrats, and a net negative 36/38 view from independent voters.

Bruning strong favorite in NE-Senate

PPP's newest Nebraska Senate poll finds that Democrats are in a much worse position with Bob Kerrey as their candidate than they would have been with Ben Nelson, and that Jon Bruning is now a strong favorite in both the primary and general elections.

Kerrey's campaign rollout has not been a success. In October his favorability rating in the state was a +5 spread at 39/34. Since then it's dropped 20 points on the margin to -15 at 36/51. Kerrey's stayed steady with Democrats but has seen large drops with independents (from 47/24 to 36/38) and with Republicans (from 23/47 to 16/74).

Kerrey trails the top 3 Republican contenders by double digits. He's down 17 to Jon Bruning at 54-37, 14 to Don Stenberg at 52-38, and 10 to Deb Fischer at 48-38. In PPP's last poll before he announced his retirement Ben Nelson trailed Bruning by only 4, Stenberg by 3, and actually led Fischer by 2. This does not appear to be one of those instances where a retirement left the party better off.

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17