Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Romney's Fading Popularity

You want to know the biggest reason Mitt Romney hasn't surged at any point in the Republican Presidential race this year? It's because the more GOP primary voters across the country have been exposed to him, the less they've liked him.

There are 13 places PPP has polled the Republican race in October or November where it also did a poll sometime between January and March.  In those places Romney's net favorability has dropped by an average of 15 points over the course of the year.

On average Romney's favorability with primary voters was 54/25 in these 13 places at the begininng of the year. Now it's only 50/35. His problem is partially that his positives have gone down but more than that it's that as his name recognition has increased, most folks moving off the fence have gone into the negative column.

What's most remarkable about the decline in Romney's popularity is how uniform it's been- he's less popular now than he was at the start of the year in all 13 places where there are polls to compare. And in 11 out of the 13 places that decline in his net favorability has been at least 14 points- the only places with more modest declines are Maine and North Carolina.

This is why as Donald Trump and Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry and Herman Cain have risen and fallen Romney hasn't seen any increase in his support- GOP voters just simply aren't warming up to him at all- in fact they're going in the other direction.

Here's the full data:

State	Romney in Jan/Feb/Mar	Romney in Oct/Nov	Shift
West Virginia	56/18 (+38)	42/27 (+15)	-23
Pennsylvania	52/25 (+27)	46/39 (+7)	-20
Arizona	62/22 (+40)	56/34 (+22)	-18
Ohio	53/26 (+27)	47/37 (+10)	-17
Nebraska	51/23 (+28)	45/34 (+11)	-17
Iowa	57/26 (+31)	51/36 (+15)	-16
Nevada	70/18 (+52)	63/27 (+36)	-16
Mississippi	48/36 (+12)	40/44 (-4)	-16
National	52/28 (+24)	48/39 (+9)	-15
California	59/22 (+37)	55/33 (+22)	-15
Wisconsin	49/25 (+24)	47/37 (+10)	-14
Maine	47/31 (+16)	51/37 (+14)	-2
North Carolina	50/26 (+24)	53/30 (+23)	-1

Nebraskans favor civil unions, Osborne universally admired

Raleigh, N.C. – Nebraska is more supportive of gay rights than one might expect.  While only 36% support same-sex marriage, and 54% oppose it, when civil unions are included as an option, 64% favor legal equality for gay couples, with 30% still preferring full marriage rights and 34% civil unions.  The numbers on both questions are similar to those PPP found recently in a much more Democratic swing state, Florida, and better than those in another middle-American state that is also more Democratic, Texas.  79% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and even 52% of the majority Republicans want gay couples to have some sort of legal recognition.

Nebraska Miscellany

-Ben Nelson's position may be looking better than it was 8 months ago but here's one data point that won't help his prospects for reelection: only 29% of voters in the state support the health care bill from last year, while 60% of voters remain opposed to it. It's a given that Republicans are against it but independents are as well by a 54/33 margin and even 25% of Democrats oppose it.

-When it comes to the issue of more right for same sex couples Nebraska mirrors what we find in most states- voters are opposed to gay marriage but if you expand the discussion to gay marriage/civil unions a majority support some form of legal recognition. Nebraskans think gay marriage should continue to be illegal, 54/36.  But 64% support extended rights for same sex couples (30% for marriage, 34% for civil unions) to only 34% opposed to all legal recongition. Even among Republicans 52% support more rights for gay couples.

-Tom Osborne is the most popular person PPP has ever polled on anywhere and Bo Pelini isn't far behind. An amazing 86% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Osborne to 6% with a negative one. He has to be just about the most popular person in American History to lose an election. Pelini is seen postively by 70% of voters to 14% with a negative opinion.  It's rare when we poll a state to find a college football coach that 70% of voters have ever even heard of, much less have a positive opinion of. If there's a state in the country that embraces a college football program more than Nebraska does the Cornhuskers I haven't polled it yet.

Heineman, Johanns popularity declining in NE, still well liked

Raleigh, N.C. – Gov. Dave Heineman is still one of the most popular governors in the country, but no longer the most popular.  When PPP last polled the state in January, two-thirds of Nebraska voters approved of his job performance, and 23% disapproved.  That astonishing 44-point spread topped the list of 42 governors on which PPP has polled until now.  In the latest survey, only 57% approve, with 29% disapproving, a 16-point downturn.  But in a land of unpopular politicians, that still makes him the second best liked of the 37 governors polled this year, after Colorado’s John Hickenlooper.  Heineman has declined with Democrats, independents, and even his own Republicans.

Nebraska Miscellaneous

-Dave Heineman remains one of the most popular Governors in the country with 57% of voters approving of him to 29% who disapprove. PPP has polled on 42 sitting Governors and the only ones with a better net approval are Mike Beebe of Arkansas and John Hickenlooper of Colorado. In addition to being pretty universally popular with Republicans, Heineman has stellar numbers with independents (55/35) and an unusually high amount of crossover support with 37% approval from Democrats.

Although Heineman's numbers would be the envy of most any Governor in the country, they're down quite a bit from January when PPP found him at 67/23.  It's hard to pinpoint Heineman's fall to any one particular group of voters- he's down with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

-It's a similar story with Senator Mike Johanns' numbers. He's popular, with 52% of voters approving of him and 32% disapproving. That puts him firmly in the 80th percentile for the 87 sitting Senators PPP has done approval polls on. But it's down from an even more stellar 59/28 spread on our other Nebraska poll this year.  The state may just be in a generally anti-politician mood- in addition to these falls for Republicans Heineman and Johanns, PPP also found Democrats Barack Obama and Ben Nelson in much worse shape in the state now than they were earlier this year.

Nebraska a tough cob to husk for Obama

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama had so much money and such a wind at his back in 2008 that he played in and managed to win an electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2^nd Congressional District.  That is the only reason for him to spend any time in the state next year, but in PPP’s latest poll of the state, it looks like even that part of the state will be tough to crack, especially after redistricting slightly changed its borders.

Statewide, Obama trails all of the possible Republican opponents tested against him: Mitt Romney, 51-38; Ron Paul, 47-37; Michele Bachmann, 49-41; and Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, 48-41.  All of these are smaller margins than the 15 points by which John McCain won overall.  In the new 2^nd, Obama trails by only three to eight points, so a victory there is conceivable, but probably not a wise expenditure on a more narrow and hostile map.  Had the legislature not messed with the lines, he would have tied Paul and Gingrich and trailed the others by three to six points in the Omaha-based district.

Obama potentially competitive in NE-1, 2

Barack Obama has no chance of winning Nebraska next year.  His approval rating in the state is 35% with 61% of voters disapproving of him. The only places where PPP has found him to be more unpopular are Utah, Wyoming, and West Virginia. Part of the problem is his having pretty much no support from Republicans in a Republican heavy state but even with Democrats his approval is a much lower than usual 68%.

Obama trails Mitt Romney by 13 points at 51-38, Ron Paul by 10 at 47-37, Michele Bachmann by 8 at 49-41, and Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry each by 7 points at 48-41. Those margins are all closer than Obama's 15 point loss statewide in 2008 but they don't point to much potential for him to pull a big upset. The strongest Republican in Nebraska actually would have been Chris Christie, who led Obama 51-36 on this poll. Christie did better than any other Republican on the North Carolina poll we released this morning as well but of course that ship has sailed.

Ben Nelson down only 4 points to Jon Bruning

Raleigh, N.C. – Ben Nelson may not be in as much trouble as previously thought.  The embattled Nebraska Democrat had been almost an assumed casualty on the way to a Republican takeover of the Senate, but with recent stumbles by likely opponent Jon Bruning, Nelson’s chances are revived—and with them, the Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate.  That is even more true if Bruning manages to lose the primary.

PPP has not polled the state since January.  Then, Bruning led, 50-39.  That is now only 46-42.  This movement comes from incremental improvements with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.  While Bruning wins 13% of Democrats, Nelson poaches 19% of the GOP, and he has a 49-29 lead with independents.