Raleigh, N.C. – Gov. Dave Heineman is still one of the most popular governors in the country, but no longer the most popular. When PPP last polled the state in January, two-thirds of Nebraska voters approved of his job performance, and 23% disapproved. That astonishing 44-point spread topped the list of 42 governors on which PPP has polled until now. In the latest survey, only 57% approve, with 29% disapproving, a 16-point downturn. But in a land of unpopular politicians, that still makes him the second best liked of the 37 governors polled this year, after Colorado’s John Hickenlooper. Heineman has declined with Democrats, independents, and even his own Republicans.
Sen. Mike Johanns’ standing has also slipped, by 11 points, from 59-28 to 52-32. He had been tied with Vermont’s Patrick Leahy for the seventh most popular of 87 senators on which PPP has polled, and has falled to a tie for 21st with Hawaii’s Daniel Akaka. Republicans are a little down in him in the last eight months, but most of the fall is with independents, who have soured on him by 28 points on the margin, from 50-32 to 36-46.
1st-District Rep. Jeff Fortenberry is the most popular of the three congressmen statewide, with a 33-26 favorability spread. In his current district, half see him favorably and 30% unfavorably. If he runs again under the newly drawn lines which have made the 1st slightly more Democratic, he stands at 45-31. 2nd-District Rep. Lee Terry is narrowly disliked statewide, at 32-33. That is even worse with his own constitutents, 41-45. The 2nd is currently the bluest of the three districts. His future constitutents do not like him much more (43-42). 3rd-District Rep. Adrian Smith is at 30-26 statewide, 56-29 with those he currently serves, and 52-28 with those he will if he wins re-election next fall.
Former Sens. Chuck Hagel (44-30) and Bob Kerrey (39-34) are looked back on moderately well. Democrat Kerrey is only slightly more liked by his own party than Hagel is across the aisle, and Republicans about break even on Hagel. Both are seen very well by independents.
PPP surveyed 739 Nebraska voters from September 30th to October 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Dave Heineman’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 57%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mike
Johanns’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 52%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Fortenberry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lee Terry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adrian Smith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Kerrey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chuck Hagel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 53%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 51%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q14 New Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 41%
2nd………………………………………………………… 30%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 29%
Q15 Old Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 40%
2nd………………………………………………………… 32%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 27%
