Raleigh, N.C. – Bob Kerrey has his work cut out for him as he returns to Nebraska to run for U.S. Senate, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Kerrey trails his most likely opponent, State Attorney General Jon Bruning, by 17 points, 54-37. Kerrey also trails two other potential opponents by double digits – he’s losing to State Treasurer Don Stenberg 52-38 and to State Senator Deb Fischer 48-38.
Over half of Nebraska voters view Kerrey unfavorably. 51% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him compared to just 36% who have a favorable one. Kerrey only gets a 66/20 rating among Democrats, and a net negative 36/38 view from independent voters.
Further complicating matters for Kerrey is the fact that his Republican challengers are less well-known than him, suggesting they have room to grow. Jon Bruning’s favorability ratings sits at 39/35 with 26% not sure; Don Stenberg is at 36/31 with 33% not sure; and Deb Fischer is at 19/21 with 60% not sure – Fischer leads Kerrey by 10 points despite 60% of voters not knowing enough about her to form an opinion of her.
“Ben Nelson was a lot more competitive in polling for reelection than Bob Kerrey is now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Nelson’s retirement seems to have hurt Democratic chances of holding the seat.”
Turning to the Republican primary, Jon Bruning sits in a commanding position, taking 46% of the vote, with Stenberg garnering 18%, Fischer 12%, Pat Flynn with 4%, Sharyn Elander with 3%, Spencer Zimmerman at 0% and 18% of Republican primary voters not sure who they support yet. Bruning is the most well-known of the 3 candidates in double digits, with a 57/17 favorability rating among Republican primary voters compared to 49/20 for Stenberg and 22/22 for Fischer.
PPP surveyed 1,028 Nebraska voters and 440 Republican primary voters on March 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the larger survey is +/-3.1%, and the margin of error for the Republican primary survey is +/-4.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Bruning?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deb Fischer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 60%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Kerrey?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Stenberg?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q5 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Jon Bruning and Democrat Bob
Kerrey, who would you vote for?
Jon Bruning…………………………………………….. 54%
Bob Kerrey……………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Deb Fischer and Democrat Bob
Kerrey, who would you vote for?
Deb Fischer ……………………………………………. 48%
Bob Kerrey……………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Republican Don Stenberg and Democrat Bob
Kerrey, who would you vote for?
Don Stenberg………………………………………….. 52%
Bob Kerrey……………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 6%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 52%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 15%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
