Raleigh, N.C. – We did a short unplanned poll in Nebraska last night because of the sudden shift in the Republican Senate primary that some other surveys had shown. We found a very close race with Deb Fischer at 37%, Jon Bruning at 33%, and Don Stenberg at 17%. With the poll’s margin of error at +/-5.9% Fischer’s lead is very much within the margin of error and the race could go either way tonight.
Bruning’s image has taken a huge hit in the month and a half since our last poll of the race. His favorability rating is a net +13 at 49/36. That’s a 27 point decline from late March when he was at +40 (57/17.) Stenberg’s seen a large- although not quite as dramatic- drop in his numbers as well from +29 (49/20) to +12 (46/34).
Fischer meanwhile has seen an incredible improvement in how voters view her. On our last poll she had only 44% name recognition and Republicans were split on her 22/22. Now she’s by far and away the most popular candidate in the race with a +45 favorability rating at 62/17.
If Fischer wins there will be inevitable attempts to spin it as a Tea Party triumph but her rise doesn’t really appear to be about ideology. Bruning is actually winning the Tea Party vote 39-36 and among voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative’ Fischer is only up 38-37. The shift in this race has a lot more to do with the candidates’ images than it does with issues or philosophy.
A couple other interesting things from the crosstabs: Fischer is winning men 39-31, while Bruning is winning women 37-35. Not necessarily what you would expect. There’s also a significant divide along generational lines with Fischer up 41-31 among seniors, but Bruning leading 36-31 with voters under 45.
This one could go either way but whatever the final outcome it’s another lesson in the weird dynamics of 3 way races- and the incredible power of negative advertising.
PPP surveyed 272 likely Republican primary voters on May 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican or
Democratic primary tomorrow, or are you not
sure?
Republican primary………………………………….100%
Democratic primary………………………………….. 0%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 0%
Q2 The Republican candidates for Senate are Jon
Bruning, Sharyn Elander, Deb Fischer, Pat
Flynn, Don Stenberg, and Spencer
Zimmerman. If the primary was today, who
would you vote for?
Jon Bruning…………………………………………….. 33%
Sharyn Elander ……………………………………….. 1%
Deb Fischer ……………………………………………. 37%
Pat Flynn………………………………………………… 2%
Don Stenberg………………………………………….. 17%
Spencer Zimmerman ……………………………….. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Bruning?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deb Fischer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable …………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Stenberg?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 20%
Q6 If you are very liberal, press 1. If somewhat
liberal, press 2. If moderate, press 3. If
somewhat conservative, press 4. If very
conservative, press 5.
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 5%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 33%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 44%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 44%
Man……………………………………………………….. 56%
Q8 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are 65 or older, press 3.
18-45 …………………………………………………….. 26%
46-65 …………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Q9 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 59%
Not sure ………………………………………………… 9%
Q10 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Yes………………………………………………………… 52%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%