Raleigh, N.C. – While he may face a primary challenge, the man long thought the inevitable opponent of Senator Ben Nelson next fall starts off with a large advantage over all the other potential Republican aspirants. Attorney General Jon Bruning is the favorite of 47% of Nebraska’s GOP primary voters, far ahead of another heavy hitter, State Treasurer Don Stenberg, at 19%, with two virtual unknowns, State Senator Deb Fischer and activist Pat Flynn, at only 7% and 6%, respectively.
The race is ten points closer among the 31% of voters who think themselves ideologically moderate, with Bruning holding only a 38-20 lead, but his 51% with the two-thirds conservative supermajority assures his dominance overall. A pretty large 20% are undecided, slightly more among moderates than conservatives, and these fence-sitters could shift the race in Stenberg’s direction if he mounts a strong campaign.
The race so far is mostly a reflection of name recognition. While Bruning and Stenberg are almost equally well known and well liked, no more Republicans are aware of Fischer or Flynn than Nebraskans at large. 84% have no opinion of Flynn, and 76% of Fischer.
“What’s noteworthy here is that Bruning is well ahead of Stenberg even though they have comparable name recognition,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters know both of them and they like Bruning more.”
In the presidential primary, the current top four finishers are in a statistical tie, with Mike Huckabee barely edging out Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney, 21-19-18-15, with 12% undecided, 8% for Ron Paul, 4% for Tim Pawlenty, 3% for neighboring South Dakota’s John Thune, and 1% for Mitch Daniels. The race could not be any more up in the air. Unlike in other states, Romney does not post a lead with moderates here, but he does show his typical weakness with conservatives. Huckabee has insignificant leads with both groups.
Monday’s release showed that Palin would be a point behind President Obama in the general election, while the other three frontrunners would put the perennially red state out of reach.
PPP surveyed 519 usual Nebraska Republican primary voters from January 26th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Bruning?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deb Fischer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat Flynn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Stenberg?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q9 Given the choices of Jon Bruning, Deb Fischer,
Pat Flynn, and Don Stenberg who would you
most like to see as the Republican candidate
for Senate next year?
Jon Bruning…………………………………………….. 47%
Deb Fischer ……………………………………………. 6%
Pat Flynn………………………………………………… 7%
Don Stenberg………………………………………….. 19%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 20%
Q10 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 1%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 21%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Conservative…………………………………………… 67%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q14
1st…………………………………………………………. 37%
2nd………………………………………………………… 26%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 37%
