Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama padded his already overwhelming Electoral College victory over John McCain four years ago by taking one of Nebraska’s three congressional districts despite losing statewide by 15 points. Though the state legislature redrew the districts to try to ensure that would not happen again, there is still a chance it may, per PPP’s latest poll of the state.
Mitt Romney leads Obama by only 12 points statewide (51-39)—less not only than McCain’s margin of victory but equal to Ron Paul’s lead and also less than that of the man he is trying to fend off for the nomination. Rick Santorum tops Obama by 17 points, 55-38, while Paul matches Romney at 49-37. Only Newt Gingrich fares worse than Romney, leading the president by nine (49-40). Obama trails Romney by only one point in the 2nd Congressional District he snatched from McCain last time; he ties Santorum.
Romney’s problem is not only in the general election but also in the primary, which comes on May 15th. Santorum leads by 14 points, 39-25, with Gingrich at 16% and Paul at 10%. Even worse for the so-called frontrunner is the chance that Gingrich may no longer be in the race at that point. In that case, Santorum jumps to a 21-point lead, 51-30.
Nebraskans do not like the president very much; 38% approve and 54% disapprove of his job performance. But they dislike all the Republicans except Santorum just as much if not more, and they only break even on Santorum in this deep-red state—44% see him favorably and 43% unfavorably, which bests Romney’s 32-54, Paul’s 31-54, and Gingrich’s 24-60. Even GOP primary voters only narrowly like Romney, 46-39, versus Santorum’s 64-22.
“Barack Obama has a chance to steal an electoral vote in Nebraska again,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Statewide Rick Santorum is the strongest candidate for both the primary and general elections.”
PPP surveyed 1,028 Nebraska voters, including 440 usual Republican primary voters, from March 22nd to 25th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-3.1%, and +/-4.7% for the GOP primary sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 59%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 55%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 6%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 52%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 15%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 9%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q15 Congressional District
1……………………………………………………………. 42%
2……………………………………………………………. 27%
3……………………………………………………………. 31%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 39%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to the candidate…………… 50%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 50%
Q7 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 23%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 30%
Q8 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 30%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q10 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 52%
Are not …………………………………………………… 48%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 43%
Man……………………………………………………….. 57%
Q13 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 34%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
