Polls

Nebraska a tough cob to husk for Obama

| Dustin Ingalls

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PresidentGraph Raleigh, N.C. –
President Obama had so much money and such a wind at his back in 2008 that he played in and managed to win an electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.  That is the only reason for him to spend any time in the state next year, but in PPP’s latest poll of the state, it looks like even that part of the state will be tough to crack, especially after redistricting slightly changed its borders.

Statewide, Obama trails all of the possible Republican opponents tested against him: Mitt Romney, 51-38; Ron Paul, 47-37; Michele Bachmann, 49-41; and Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, 48-41.  All of these are smaller margins than the 15 points by which John McCain won overall.  In the new 2nd, Obama trails by only three to eight points, so a victory there is conceivable, but probably not a wise expenditure on a more narrow and hostile map.  Had the legislature not messed with the lines, he would have tied Paul and Gingrich and trailed the others by three to six points in the Omaha-based district.

The president’s 35% approval rating, with 61% disapproving, is his fourth worst standing of any of the 37 states in which PPP has measured him this year.  Though that is down from an already bad 38-56 when PPP last polled the state in January, his deficits to Romney and Gingrich have not changed much.  Then, he trailed Romney, 49-37 (-1), and Gingrich, 48-40 (+1).  That is because their personal favorability ratings have declined even more than the president’s job performance marks.  Romney has moved 15 points on the margin from a 38-35 grade to 35-47, making him still the most popular, while Gingrich is down 12 points from 34-43 to 31-52.  The others were not tested in January.  After Romney, the next most “popular” is Bachmann, at 30-49, then Gingrich, then Paul (26-50), and finally Perry (25-53).

“A statewide win for Barack Obama in Nebraska doesn’t look possible,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He has an outside chance at being competitive in the 1st and/or 2nd Congressional Districts though.”

PPP surveyed 739 Nebraska voters from September 30th to October 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Chris Christie, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 36%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%

Q12 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q13 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%

Q14 Which system would you prefer for dispensing
Nebraska’s electoral votes: giving all of them to
the statewide winner or giving one to the
winner of each individual Congressional
District?
The electoral votes should all go to the
statewide winner ………………………………………31%
One should be given to the winner of each
individual Congressional District …………………51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 53%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 51%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%

Q19 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

Q21 New Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 41%
2nd………………………………………………………… 30%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 29%

Q22 Old Congressional District
1st…………………………………………………………. 40%
2nd………………………………………………………… 32%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 27%

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