Raleigh, N.C. – Nebraska split its electors for the first time in 2008, when President Obama won the 2nd Congressional District containing Omaha by 1%, and John McCain won the other four votes. Because the Obama campaign so heavily targeted the 2nd district, McCain took the entire state by only 15 points, far less than George W. Bush’s 34-point victory over John Kerry. In PPP’s first look at the state for the 2012 cycle, Obama remains at least as strong as two years ago, still winning Omaha by nine to 24 points but losing statewide to all four Republican frontrunners—most narrowly to Sarah Palin, who, like in PPP’s recent Texas poll, edges the president by only a single point.
Overall, Mike Huckabee does just a hair worse than McCain, with a 51-38 edge over Obama, who loses to Mitt Romney, 49-37, and Newt Gingrich, 48-40. But Palin comes in with just a razor-thin 45-44 advantage. The president loses independents by a point to Huckabee, but beats Romney by six, Palin by 15, and Gingrich by 17. The problem for Palin is Republican defection. While he only pulls 10-13% of the GOP against the others, Obama takes 18% versus Palin, holding her to only 69%, while the others earn 74-78% of their party. The president also earns 80% of Democrats against Palin, a little better than his 75-79% versus the others.
Palin only beats the president by five points in the 1st district, and is down by a whopping 24 in the 2nd. The other three prevail by 14 to 18 points in the 1st and trail by only nine to 19 in the 2nd. She also does worst in the most conservative of the districts, the 3rd, beating the president there by 25 points; the others show margins of 29 to 34 points.
Huckabee is far and away the best liked of the five candidates, with a 44-33 favorability rating to Romney’s 38-35, Palin’s 42-50, and Gingrich’s 34-43. The president, by comparison, has a 38-56 job approval margin, among his worst standings anywhere in the country. With this lopsided likeability and an 18-point registration advantage over the Democrats, each of the Republicans ought to be winning soundly statewide.
“Barack Obama looks poised to take an electoral vote in Nebraska again next year unless the state changes its system for dispensing them or makes serious changes to the lines of its Congressional districts,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 977 Nebraska voters from January 26th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 37%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 45%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 52%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q15
1st…………………………………………………………. 36%
2nd………………………………………………………… 33%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 31%
