Raleigh, N.C. – Ben Nelson may not be in as much trouble as previously thought. The embattled Nebraska Democrat had been almost an assumed casualty on the way to a Republican takeover of the Senate, but with recent stumbles by likely opponent Jon Bruning, Nelson’s chances are revived—and with them, the Democrats’ chances of retaining the Senate. That is even more true if Bruning manages to lose the primary.
PPP has not polled the state since January. Then, Bruning led, 50-39. That is now only 46-42. This movement comes from incremental improvements with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. While Bruning wins 13% of Democrats, Nelson poaches 19% of the GOP, and he has a 49-29 lead with independents.
The funny thing is that Nelson has only gotten less popular in the last eight months. He had an already miserable 39-50 approval-disapproval margin then, and that has declined to 36-55 now, tying him with John McCain for the least popular of 87 sitting senators on which PPP has polled. Democrats approve only 51-38, down from a still bad 58-33. A quarter of Republicans do like the work he is doing, and they are over half of voters.
But Nelson has drawn closer because Bruning’s personal popularity has taken a 22-point nosedive, from 42-26 in January to 32-38 now. Voters have also soured on Stenberg by 11 points on the margin, from 38-25 to 34-32. Despite their personal unpopularity, these less likely nominees have actually maintained or improved their leads, unlike Bruning. Stenberg leads 44-41, down just a hair from 45-41 in January. Fischer trails, 41-39 (42-35); and Flynn, 43-36 (42-33).
“Ben Nelson still has a very difficult fight for reelection on his hands but it looks like he might at least have a chance,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The other time we polled this race it looked like he was pretty much finished but the good news for him is that Jon Bruning is not proving to be a very strong foe.”
PPP surveyed 739 Nebraska voters from September 30th to October 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ben
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Bruning?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deb Fischer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 64%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat Flynn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Stenberg?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q6 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Jon
Bruning, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson …………………………………………….. 42%
Jon Bruning…………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Deb
Fischer, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson …………………………………………….. 41%
Deb Fischer ……………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Pat
Flynn, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson …………………………………………….. 43%
Pat Flynn………………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Don
Stenberg, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson …………………………………………….. 41%
Don Stenberg………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 53%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 32%
Republican……………………………………………… 51%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 27%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%