Raleigh, N.C. – Among 21 Democratic senators up for re-election next year, there is little question that the most endangered is Nebraska’s Ben Nelson, a conservative Democrat in an even more conservative state. Though he won re-election handily in 2006, his first race was decided by a mere two points, and Nelson would lose a rematch to his opponent that year, State Treasurer Don Stenberg, as well as the most likely matchup with Attorney General Jon Bruning. Nelson would only defeat two unknown Republicans, Pat Flynn and Deb Fischer.
If the election were today, Bruning would oust Nelson, 50-39, as would Stenberg, but by a narrower 45-41 margin. Nelson would receive similar proportions of the vote against Flynn and Fischer, but their low profiles would currently give him respective 42-33 and 42-35 edges. Nelson wins independents by at least nine points in every matchup, but they make up such a small portion of voters that to beat Bruning or Stenberg, he is going to have to do what he does against Flynn and Fischer: cut down on Democratic defections and attract significant Republican support.
Though about a quarter of Republicans like the work he is doing, and independents approve, 47-43, Nelson’s overall 39-50 job performance figure suffers not only from the 52-34 Republican registration advantage over Democrats, but also by his weak standing with his own party, at only 58-33. By contrast, his colleague Mike Johanns has a 59-28 overall approval margin, making him the third most popular of 77 current senators about which PPP has polled; Nelson is in the bottom fifth. 73% are not familiar with Fischer, and 79% with Flynn, but Bruning and Stenberg post decent 42-26 and 38-25 favorability ratings.
“It may be too early to say Ben Nelson is toast, but things certainly are not looking up for his survival into a third term,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
Governor Dave Heineman is now the most popular governor of 38 whose approval ratings PPP has tested in the last year, with a 67-23 margin. Amazingly, Democrats split evenly at 44% approving and disapproving, while independents mirror the overall electorate.
PPP surveyed 977 Nebraska voters from January 26th to 27th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Dave Heineman’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 67%
Disapprove………… 23%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mike
Johanns’ job performance?
Approve…………….. 59%
Disapprove………… 28%
Not sure ……………. 13%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ben
Nelson’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 39%
Disapprove………… 50%
Not sure ……………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Bruning?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Deb Fischer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat Flynn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Stenberg?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Jon
Bruning, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson …………………………………………….. 39%
Jon Bruning…………………………………………….. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Deb
Fischer, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson …………………………………………….. 42%
Deb Fischer ……………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Pat
Flynn, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson …………………………………………….. 42%
Pat Flynn………………………………………………… 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q11 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Democrat Ben Nelson and Republican Don
Stenberg, who would you vote for?
Ben Nelson …………………………………………….. 41%
Don Stenberg………………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 43%
Conservative…………………………………………… 45%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 52%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q17
1st…………………………………………………………. 36%
2nd………………………………………………………… 33%
3rd ………………………………………………………… 31%