Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Reflections on Last Night

It's hard for me to decide what to make of our polling in last night's races in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri.

On one hand our numbers didn't come very close to giving a precise measure of the final outcome. Rick Santorum did much better in each state than our numbers had projected.

On the other hand we were the only polling company that did any surveys in any of those three races. No one else even tried because of the difficulty in identifying the electorate for such low turnout caucuses and beauty contests. And although they didn't measure the full magnitude of it, our surveys did pick up that there was some major momentum for Rick Santorum in these states. There weren't really any other indicators that was coming- Santorum had done poorly in every contest since Iowa- and if not for our polls last night's results really would have come as a shock to people.

Big day possible for Santorum

Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today's contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He's at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

Big Day for Santorum?

Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today's contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He's at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

Santorum's personal popularity is the main reason for his sudden reemergence as a relevant player in the GOP race.  In all 3 of these states his favorability is over 70%- 74/17 in Minnesota, 72/17 in Missouri, and 71/19 in Colorado. He's far better liked than his main opponents- Romney's favorability is 47-60% in those states and Gingrich's is 47-48%. While Romney and Gingrich have hammered each other in recents weeks Santorum's been largely left alone and he's benefiting from that now.

Nixon leads Republican field in gubernatorial race

Raleigh, N.C. – Missouri Governor Jay Nixon leads a largely unknown Republican field for Governor by big margins, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. Nixon leads both announced candidates, businessman Dave Spence by 20 points (47-27), and consultant Bill Randles by 18 points (47-29), and leads potential candidate State Auditor Tom Schweich by 18 also (48-30).

Voters have almost no impression of any of three potential challengers. Bill Randles is unknown by 76% of the electorate, while 9% view him favorably and 16% unfavorably. Dave Spence is unknown by 79% of voters and, with 6% holding a favorable view and 15% unfavorable. And Tom Schweich, the only current office holder of the challengers we tested, is unknown to 72% of voters with a 12% favorability rating and 16% unfavorable.

Jay Nixon up big for reelection

Missouri Governor Jay Nixon continues to look like an overwhelming favorite for reelection. He leads announced opponents Bill Randles and Dave Spence by margins of 18 and 20 points at 47-29 and 47-27 respectively. And he also has a 48-30 advantage over prospective opponent Tom Schweich.

Nixon has two big things going for him. The first is his own crossover appeal. Nixon's overall approval rating of 44% with 31% of voters disapproving of him doesn't sound that impressive on the surface. But that's just because he has lower than normal numbers with his party base, as only 54% of Democrats approve of him to 25% who disapprove. But he more than makes up for that with a solid +15 approval spread with independents (44/29) and because he almost breaks even with Republicans at 34% approving and 40% disapproving of him. It's very rare for a Governor to be that strong across party lines.

The other reason Nixon's doing well is that he simply doesn't have very strong opposition. Randles has 25% name recognition and Spence is known to only 21% of voters. Even Schweich, generally thought of as someone who would be a stronger and better known candidate, has just 28% name recognition. Nixon would be a formidable foe for Republicans under any circumstances, but the lack of a strong GOP candidate make the road even tougher.

Obama, Romney tied in Missouri

Raleigh, N.C. – Four years ago, Missouri lost its bellwether status in the presidential election, but it was still the closest contest in the country.  John McCain prevailed over now President Obama by a tenth of a point.  If Mitt Romney is the Republican standard-bearer this year, it looks like it will be just as close.  He ties the president at 45%, but Obama leads the other contenders, two by close margins.

As in Ohio, Rick Santorum is by a significant margin the best-liked of the Republicans personally, with a 35-47 favorability spread to Romney’s 30-54, Ron Paul’s 26-55, and Newt Gingrich’s 29-59.  But unlike in Ohio, where he performed the best against the president, Santorum here is only third best, trailing by three points (47-44).  Paul lags by two points (45-43), and Gingrich shouts from a distant seven-point deficit (49-42)—yet another in a long line of recent state polls which suggest Gingrich would be the GOP’s most embarrassing nominee.

Obama competitive in Missouri

Barack Obama's having a good polling week. We found him leading Mitt Romney by 4 points nationally and 7 points in Ohio last weekend.  And our newest Missouri poll finds the state may retain its swing state status for 2012. Obama and Romney are now tied there, a change from all of PPP's 2011 polling in the state which had found the Republican leading.

Obama's Missouri approval rating is 45% with 50% of voters disapproving. That -5 spread represents a 5 point improvement from PPP's last poll of the state in September when he was at -10 with 43% of voters approving of him and 53% disapproving. That's improvement but Obama still has a lot of work to do. He's at only 40/54 with independents and Republicans are more unified in their disapproval of him (91%) than Democrats are in their favor (83%).

Obama trailed Romney 47-43 in the fall, but has now pulled even in the state at 45%. He's benefiting from the fact that Romney is unpopular in the state. Only 30% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 54% who view him negatively. Even in states that went for John McCain in 2008 Romney's not proving to be a particularly popular figure.

McCaskill knotted with three GOP foes

Raleigh, N.C. – Things literally could not be any closer in Claire McCaskill’s bid for re-election.  In PPP’s latest survey of the race, the freshman Missouri Senator ties each of her three prospective Republican opponents at 43%.

McCaskill has been neck-and-neck with frontrunner Sarah Steelman and strong challenger Todd Akin all the way, leading Steelman 43-42 and Akin 45-43 in PPP’s last look at the race four months ago.  But voters’ views of McCaskill’s job performance have slipped a little since then, from 43% approving and 47% disapproving to 42-49, and the other GOP contender has gotten significantly better known.