Raleigh, N.C. – Jay Nixon has managed to move himself up in the rankings of the most popular governors in the country but lose ground in his re-election bid since PPP last polled Missouri in January. But he still remains a solid favorite for another term against two leading Republicans who are still almost completely unknown to the general electorate.
46% of Show-Me State voters like their governor’s work, and 29% dislike it, versus his 44-31 approval spread four months ago. He has inched up with his own party and with independents, and he retains unusually strong crossover support—29% of Republicans approve to 39% who disapprove.
But, at the same time, his two potential opponents have creeped up on him in the horseraces, and once a GOP nominee is chosen and is able to broaden his public profile, the race could close further. Nixon leads frontrunner Dave Spence by 11 points (45-34), down from 20 points in the last survey (47-27). He tops Bill Randles by 14 (46-32).
Nixon leads by double digits with independents in either match-up, and at a third of the electorate, they make a big difference in this state, about equal to the proportion of Democrats and Republicans.
It looks like Nixon will probably draw the tougher of the two match-ups. Spence has opened up a big lead over Randles in the primary contest this spring. When PPP polled the two likely primary entrants in January, Randles led by an insignificant 15-12 margin, with 74% undecided that far out. But with two and a half months to go, Spence finds himself with a 32-11 lead, with 5% combined for two minor candidates and 53% preferring someone else or completely undecided.
“Jay Nixon remains a clear favorite for reelection but it’s unlikely he’ll be able to match his 20 point margin of victory from 2008,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 602 Missouri voters, including an oversample of 430 Republican primary voters, from May 24th to 27th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-4.0%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-4.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Jay
Nixon’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .29%
Not sure …………….. .25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Randles?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Spence?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q4 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Bill
Randles, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 46%
Bill Randles…………………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Democrat Jay Nixon and Republican Dave
Spence, who would you vote for?
Jay Nixon……………………………………………….. 45%
Dave Spence ………………………………………….. 34%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 35%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 33%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Randles?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Spence?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q3 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Bill Randles, Fred Sauer, Dave Spence, and
John Weiler. If the primary was today, who
would you vote for?
Bill Randles…………………………………………….. 11%
Fred Sauer……………………………………………… 4%
Dave Spence ………………………………………….. 32%
John Weiler…………………………………………….. 1%
Another candidate……………………………………. 10%
Undecided………………………………………………. 43%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 39%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 1%
Republican……………………………………………… 71%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 49%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
